Could we see two circulations develop over the next several days with this area? Possibly. A lot of the ensembles meander it around and the longer it sits, the better the chances something eventually grabs it with a pull to the north.
Everyone is on high alert so you don’t want to scare anyone but this isn’t a storm I’d say oh it’s going into Mexico no worries.
...and I called another page out yesterday on social media because they posted something about a Cat 1 making landfall between Houston and NOLA when nothing showed that scenario yet. I agree though, it's nothing to ignore, but as of yesterday, it wasn't hype time yet :/
Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 16, 2020 10:26:26 GMT -6
GFS seems to have a convective feedback problem with that front. All of the other models coming in at 12Z show a tropical storm lifting north of out of the BOC, then stalling over the West Gulf and sitting.