A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the south-central Gulf of Mexico, possibly before the system reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 13, 2020 5:26:21 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Good thing for the fronts and high pressure building over us, protecting us. Models are showing a hurricane in the BOC. Just hope it doesn’t get trapped there and then drawn north. Right now no concern and enjoying the beautiful weather.
Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the broad low pressure are over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form later today or Saturday if the system remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America should monitor the progress of this system as it moves generally northwestward, as tropical storm watches or warning may be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, with possible flash flooding, over portions of southeastern Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 1, 2020 23:56:04 GMT -6 by hurricaner
Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 84.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Last Edit: Oct 2, 2020 9:01:13 GMT -6 by hurricaner
I got a weather alert about one of the two storms being “headed to the Gulf” ... no threat to Gulf Coast, though, right?
I presume you mean our area of the Gulfcoast? Nothing will happen fast and we may be looking at two storms in and around the Gulf middle of next week. At some point, I would expect another trough to reach the N Gulfcoast and create the famed weakness. Soon to be Gamma may spend it’s life meandering in the S Gulf and / or Campeche. The second wave may be the one that eventually becomes a problem anywhere from the N Gulfcoast to the W side of Florida or even the Keys. Another complicated forecast mess with two possible storms near the same locations. Perhaps things will become clearer by Monday but I won’t be surprised if not.