HURRICANE EPSILON Discussion Thread

Invest 94L is now red.


Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a non-tropical
low pressure system located about 550 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda continues to become better defined, and the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
organized. Additional development of this system is expected, and
a subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Now up to 90%.


Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about
500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Continued slow development
is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely
to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to
the southeast of Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical Depression 27.... forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Looks, so far, to be a fish. It will be refreshing to just sit back and watch it develop and not have to worry about whether or not it will run over us, or friends/relatives for a change.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
200 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020


...EPSILON SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 55.4W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

And yet another hurricane for the year:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 211142
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 58.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
by satellite images near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 58.8 West.
Epsilon has taken a westward jog this morning but is generally
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by
a turn toward the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, followed by
little change in strength into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435
miles (705 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).