Post by hurricaner on Oct 31, 2020 12:01:53 GMT -6
Well looks like NHC will start advisories at 4pm.
A vigorous tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce organized cloudiness and thunderstorms, and a tropical depression appears to be forming. If this recent development trend continues, then advisories will likely be initiated on this disturbance this afternoon or evening while the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph toward the western Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 31, 2020 12:02:52 GMT -6 by hurricaner
If anyone wants to know if Louisiana is safe, just go back and read the first page on the Zeta thread..
I was thinking that I had remembered some doubters as well. I went back and read the first page of the Zeta topic. It’s kind of eerie in the light of the destruction and loss of lifea caused in LA, MS, and AL (areas that initially may have blew off Zeta in its early stages).
As far as this storm is concerned, I may say that chances are not high it’s coming this way based on forecast models, but I won’t dare say flat-out that “we don’t have to worry about it”. It definitely bears watching.
Last Edit: Oct 31, 2020 15:18:43 GMT -6 by swapmeet
Post by crashtestdummy on Oct 31, 2020 15:34:28 GMT -6
And now, say 'Hello!' to TD29!:
WTNT34 KNHC 312049 TCPAT4
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 73.2W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of the depression. Hurricane or tropical storm watches will likely be required for portions of these countries later tonight or early Sunday.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 73.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this westward motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. A slower motion toward the west-southwest and then southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coast of Nicaragua by Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system is then expected to become a hurricane by Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).