Apparently the top CIPS analog is 4/27/2011 and I remember that day well as I followed much of the TV coverage in Alabama while it was ongoing. I doubt we have a repeat of that but a high end outcome (a few violent tornadoes) is not out of the question today. FWIW, I remember the weather that day being a little clear yet to our north the disaster unfolding was just mind boggling. Prayers for our brothers and sisters in the mid-south today. May they all get timely information and find safety when they need it.
Mesoscale Discussion 0251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0902 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021
Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...northern Alabama...far southern Tennessee and far northwest Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251402Z - 251600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will pose a hail and wind risk through the late morning hours across the northern AL region. The severe potential will increase during the early afternoon and into the evening hours as additional surface-based storms develop.
DISCUSSION...Mid-morning regional radar shows a swath of elevated convection ongoing from northeastern MS into northern AL associated with a zone of strong warm air advection between 850-700 mb along the synoptic warm front. Morning observed and forecast soundings indicate these storms are mostly elevated and deep-layer flow oriented along the axis of initiation suggest a clustered storm mode may continue in the near-term. Although this convection is on the fringes of the better instability (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE with higher values to the south/southwest), deep-layer shear is very favorable for organized convection with 60-70 knots of effective bulk shear. While storm interactions may limit the coverage of severe convection for the next couple of hours, a few strong to severe storms are possible and will primarily pose a wind/hail risk for the next 1-2 hours.
The severe potential is expected to increase across this region by mid-day and through the afternoon/evening hours. Partly cloudy skies and a northward flux of upper 60s/low70s dewpoints behind this early-morning convection will allow for diurnal heating/destabilization that will support surface-based convection (and a higher severe threat). Although a watch is not anticipated in the near-term, a watch will be needed later today.
Any storms that do develop over Louisiana and Mississippi will be rock throwers for sure. Mid level lapse rates are extremely high. Also, for now, the best severe parameters exist over southern Mississippi. Lift index through the roof, CAPE over 2000 j/kg, and the signficant tornado parameter is pretty much maxed out.
Last Edit: Mar 25, 2021 8:57:06 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT