I'm skeptical this would gain so much latitude so quickly like the EURO is showing, but it is possible. It's especially possible if it develops quicker and stronger.
Either way, most models are showing a large break in the ridging across Florida once 97 is moving toward that general area. If so, I think it would be hard for this system to miss that connection and continue to go west or west northwest toward the central Gulf Coast. But this is many days out and we don't yet have a named system. As always, much can and will change.
Post by Zack Fradella on Jun 30, 2021 11:22:03 GMT -6
Still too early to talk what happens in 7-10 days. Yea, the models show one thing now but they always change.
A few key points on the track will be where does it enter the Caribbean and can it miss the big islands. I've seen it happen quite often where models try to make these things gain latitude too quickly, before you know it--it's cruising west across the Caribbean.
Agree with 99% of what you said.. but sometimes it will go more N if the models can't align themselves up with the strength of a exiting trough off the US mainland.
Everyone should watch this system each day.. don't look more than 3 days out. Land interactions could happen around Hispaniola.. but right now.. We don't know.. First we watch development and it should be classified later today due to it being 48hours out from the Windward Islands. TS warnings and Hurricane Watch. Watch the GFS out to 72 hours and Euro.. if they both are aligned up to 120hrs then that's good.
Post by hurricaner on Jun 30, 2021 11:56:18 GMT -6
Now at 70/90%. Looks like we will have PTC at 4pm.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone, accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Last Edit: Jun 30, 2021 11:57:55 GMT -6 by hurricaner