Post by grisairgasm on Jul 21, 2021 14:21:41 GMT -6
This is exactly what I wanted to see. Science leading the way without significant conflict. These two pages are gold. We are probably one of only a few forums that can have civil dissertation on this subject. I personally welcome any educated or experienced opinion with a gentle label of subjectivity combined with science. Really good stuff here friends. The one overwhelming fact to me is just how complicated and intertwined this whole subject is.I’m a believer in acceleration of the climate change. That being said, you just back away and realize that forecasting anything more than a week out is often far from accurate. And I’m supposed to believe with certainty that I’ll be frying eggs on my back porch concrete in a few decades lol!? I have lots of unresolved climate ideas and observations in my head. I bet the majority of feel the same way. So you live in the Baton Rouge area a few miles from a creek or body of water. You wind up with 2 feet of water in the house 2 days after the rain event (2019?). I have non science friends that this happened to. They never once gave climate change any credibility and now they have a fit if I question it’s existence. Was this event accelerator change or just once in whatever so many years?. My point is that ramifications may be occurring right here right now in my life. Water in a home is a terribly stressful lifetime event for most people. Even worse, I had normal(?) educated friends or others that had there relationships fall apart and ended their own lives after Katrina.
Post by thermalwind on Aug 5, 2021 17:41:08 GMT -6
So here's a quick look at what I've been working on this summer, though this will be a continuing effort on my part.
I took daily weather station data off the NOAA site, looking at 15 locations in Colorado between 1979-1999 and 2000-2020. This bit is a 30k' view, just trying to see what's there (more correctly what wasn't). The main tracking is precipitation, both annual averages and seasonal averages to see how much dwindling precipitation is impacting the Colorado River. The expectation being that the early 21st century would show a statistically significant (> 2 sigma) decrease in precipitation overall and less snow in the winter.
Well, I did find an average decrease of about 1.25" in the annual average, there's such variation within the region that just 1 sigma out covered +/- 1.7" of precip. It's really suggestive there's something happening but still can't rule out just statistical noise. So failed to reject the null there.
Same thing happened with seasonal averages. Spring, Summer, and Fall all demonstrated a decrease in average precipitation in the early 21st century. Only the summer managed to have a negative mean and had the 1 sigma top error range (66% confidence limits in other words) still under zero. The rest had too much variation to even say there was a trend that wasn't noise. The Spring was particularly aggressive, with the 66% limits spanning 3" (highest precip for a spring was in the 6-8" range, to give you an idea how much that varies).
The winter...absolutely nothing of significance.
Which is interesting actually, because streamflows into the Colorado have been lower despite the implied normal snowpack over the period. Two questions stand out. A) How much of the loss is due to evaporation because of higher temperatures and lower RHs? B) How much can be explained by rains falling earlier and melting the snow faster? You'd figure that would be showing up in the river data, which is yet to fully be considered.