TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread
Aug 10, 2021 19:00:25 GMT -6
Mike Naso and grisairgasm like this
Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 10, 2021 19:00:25 GMT -6
On the subject of the "steering breakdown", let's look at this afternoon's Euro showing us the 500 mb heights. Remember, this is one model. I'm just using it for the big picture, details are still quite elusive. Don't take the path as gospel.
Going into Saturday, SE ridge in firm control and sending the storm WNW around the edge. Up around the Great Lakes you can see the trough that's going to push the SE ridge back east some and it weakens as it does it. This leads to the flow wanting to turn the storm north, but it's pretty weak. At the same time, there's going to be a little competing flow off the far east end of the ridge over the middle of the country. That typically leads to slow storm motion.
Blue circle showing the area of weak flow at 500 mb.
You can see the little closed off circle by Florida? That's our storm on the Euro.
Look at where it is in 24 hours.
That position could train a lot of rain over Florida and it won't be moving fast.
Going into Saturday, SE ridge in firm control and sending the storm WNW around the edge. Up around the Great Lakes you can see the trough that's going to push the SE ridge back east some and it weakens as it does it. This leads to the flow wanting to turn the storm north, but it's pretty weak. At the same time, there's going to be a little competing flow off the far east end of the ridge over the middle of the country. That typically leads to slow storm motion.
Blue circle showing the area of weak flow at 500 mb.
You can see the little closed off circle by Florida? That's our storm on the Euro.
Look at where it is in 24 hours.
That position could train a lot of rain over Florida and it won't be moving fast.
What time does contra flow start 
