TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread

Remnants/Dissipated

thermalwind - Touro
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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 13:51:43 GMT -6 via mobile grisairgasm likes this

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Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 10, 2021 13:51:43 GMT -6

Aug 10, 2021 13:44:37 GMT -6 thermalwind - Touro said:

Aug 10, 2021 11:38:41 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

Bruce Katz FOX NOLA still pushing the potential steering breakdown as the disturbance or storm gets into the very SE Gulf. Would like Zack’s take on that.

I don't have computer access right now but I think I see what they're talking about. I need to really dig into what the models are showing before I comment more though.

Ok, tropical tidbits good enough to see.

Yes, it does look like steering breaks down Sunday. Flooding a growing concern near the landfall area.

grisairgasm
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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 13:52:17 GMT -6

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Post by grisairgasm on Aug 10, 2021 13:52:17 GMT -6

Aug 10, 2021 13:44:37 GMT -6 thermalwind - Touro said:

Aug 10, 2021 11:38:41 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

Bruce Katz FOX NOLA still pushing the potential steering breakdown as the disturbance or storm gets into the very SE Gulf. Would like Zack’s take on that.

I don't have computer access right now but I think I see what they're talking about. I need to really dig into what the models are showing before I comment more though.

Gotcha. Thanks. I’m sure the Fox 8 weather team consult with each other. It was mentioned last night and again on the noon news. Perhaps it’s in the NHC discussion possibilities?

SKYSUMMIT
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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 15:05:18 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 10, 2021 15:05:18 GMT -6

Aug 10, 2021 13:51:43 GMT -6 thermalwind - Touro said:

Aug 10, 2021 13:44:37 GMT -6 thermalwind - Touro said:

I don't have computer access right now but I think I see what they're talking about. I need to really dig into what the models are showing before I comment more though.

Ok, tropical tidbits good enough to see.

Yes, it does look like steering breaks down Sunday. Flooding a growing concern near the landfall area.

Hopefully ridging doesn't develop to the north allowing this thing to slowly skirt the coast westward.

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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 15:07:59 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 10, 2021 15:07:59 GMT -6 Today's 12z ensembles from both the GFS and Euro look to have a bit more of a spread to them once in the Gulf.
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grisairgasm
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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 15:19:29 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by grisairgasm on Aug 10, 2021 15:19:29 GMT -6

I’m feeling no further W than Pensacola right now. Just wondering if that trough misses what’s next?. Does the high build back in forcing W or NW? Maybe another trough swings by and grabs it. Anything like the “front” last week and it should get ejected NE out of the Gulf. Weather often comes in patterns for a few weeks. Just my OPINION at this point. I’m tired of the season already.

Last Edit: Aug 10, 2021 15:20:36 GMT -6 by grisairgasm

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 16:18:23 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Aug 10, 2021 16:18:23 GMT -6
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

thermalwind - Touro Meteorology Student Posts: 1,407	TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 16:22:36 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 10, 2021 16:22:36 GMT -6 I think we have a tropical cyclone, based on the San Juan radar. Recon being soon in there is nice to confirm.

grisairgasm
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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 16:51:49 GMT -6

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Post by grisairgasm on Aug 10, 2021 16:51:49 GMT -6

The San Juan radar is certainly interesting. The low level center appears right on the SE side of Puerto Rico, not further S like models initialized. It has very little convection relative to the MLC due S of it. We’ll see when recon gets there.

Cheshire Cat
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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 16:59:16 GMT -6

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Post by Cheshire Cat on Aug 10, 2021 16:59:16 GMT -6

Aug 10, 2021 16:22:36 GMT -6 thermalwind - Touro said:

I think we have a tropical cyclone, based on the San Juan radar. Recon being soon in there is nice to confirm.

Educate us - what is the difference between Tropical Cyclone and Invest 9#L? 🤔
What made this a tropical cyclone, not a invest?

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 17:06:21 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Aug 10, 2021 17:06:21 GMT -6 Closed low level circulation

pastormichael Category 2 Pastor at Pine Ridge Methodist church between Greensburg and Kentwood, LA. Posts: 423	TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 17:07:32 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by pastormichael on Aug 10, 2021 17:07:32 GMT -6 It is a Tropical Cyclone when the system has a closed circulation and winds of 39 mph.

Zack Fradella
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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 17:11:53 GMT -6 via mobile Cheshire Cat, grisairgasm, and 3 more like this

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Post by Zack Fradella on Aug 10, 2021 17:11:53 GMT -6

Aug 10, 2021 16:59:16 GMT -6 Cheshire Cat said:

Aug 10, 2021 16:22:36 GMT -6 thermalwind - Touro said:

I think we have a tropical cyclone, based on the San Juan radar. Recon being soon in there is nice to confirm.

Educate us - what is the difference between Tropical Cyclone and Invest 9#L? 🤔
What made this a tropical cyclone, not a invest?

It’s a wave until they say it’s either a depression or storm. Nobody knows what a cyclone is and shouldn’t be part of naming but since they needed a way to say warnings are up, they call it a Potential Tropical Cyclone. It should just be Potential Storm Six.

Last Edit: Aug 10, 2021 17:12:53 GMT -6 by Zack Fradella

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thermalwind - Touro
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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 17:22:01 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 10, 2021 17:22:01 GMT -6

Aug 10, 2021 16:59:16 GMT -6 Cheshire Cat said:

Aug 10, 2021 16:22:36 GMT -6 thermalwind - Touro said:

I think we have a tropical cyclone, based on the San Juan radar. Recon being soon in there is nice to confirm.

Educate us - what is the difference between Tropical Cyclone and Invest 9#L? 🤔
What made this a tropical cyclone, not a invest?

By cyclone I just mean a closed off surface low.

It means you have a cyclonic (counterclockwise) circulation at the surface. That gives you at least a TD.

If the winds are high enough (39 mph), then it's a tropical storm and gets a name.

hurricaner
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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 18:00:47 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Aug 10, 2021 18:00:47 GMT -6

When it is upgraded it will be tropical storm Fred and is now moving west.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 66.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Last Edit: Aug 10, 2021 18:01:45 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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frankp GCWX Supporter Posts: 592	TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread Aug 10, 2021 18:54:29 GMT -6 Dutar76 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by frankp on Aug 10, 2021 18:54:29 GMT -6 270 degrees is not WNW… hehe

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TROPICAL STORM FRED Discussion Thread

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 10, 2021 13:51:43 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 10, 2021 13:52:17 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 10, 2021 15:05:18 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 10, 2021 15:07:59 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 10, 2021 15:19:29 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Aug 10, 2021 16:18:23 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 10, 2021 16:22:36 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 10, 2021 16:51:49 GMT -6

Post by Cheshire Cat on Aug 10, 2021 16:59:16 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 10, 2021 17:06:21 GMT -6

Post by pastormichael on Aug 10, 2021 17:07:32 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Aug 10, 2021 17:11:53 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 10, 2021 17:22:01 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 10, 2021 18:00:47 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Aug 10, 2021 18:54:29 GMT -6

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