HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread

neworleansmike
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 10:14:31 GMT -6 via mobile Jess23 likes this

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Post by neworleansmike on Sept 12, 2021 10:14:31 GMT -6

Rookie question here ….how confident is the track at this point ? I know with Ida they had it pretty dame close Tuesday morning, and it hit Sunday. I know there’s steering currents and the such that steer these storms, but what are you guys seeing on this ? i can only assure the models being in louisiana one day and back to texas and back to louisiana must indicate some sort of high or strong moving in or pulling out etc ? also any thoughts on strength ? everyone nailed IDA’s RI ….is that a concern here ? i mean it did go
from a blob of poop last night straight to Nicholas this morning. Thanks guys and gals as always !

ndg
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 10:42:50 GMT -6 Jess23 likes this

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Post by ndg on Sept 12, 2021 10:42:50 GMT -6

Sept 12, 2021 10:14:03 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Sept 12, 2021 10:05:18 GMT -6 ndg said:

The good news for SE LA is that the 12z GFS shifted west towards with the rest of the models.

The bad news is it stalls it right over central LA.

That 12z run brings up a good point to watch out for, right now the CoC is broad and elongated, at some time it looks to reform wherever deep convection sets up later tonight, depending exactly where that happens and how far north it does that the further west it will track closer to the TX coast before the deep SW-WSW flow sets up further up north.

Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 11:24:58 GMT -6 via mobile Jess23 likes this

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Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Sept 12, 2021 11:24:58 GMT -6

Our rain today is not associated with the storm...we won't see that until mid week...according to the NWS morning disco.

I really am thinking this is a rainstorm first.....hopefully it stays west enough to not greatly impact those who's properties are not well weather proofed from Ida.

Last Edit: Sept 12, 2021 11:25:12 GMT -6 by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59

Mike Naso
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 11:45:01 GMT -6 Jess23 and 22amillion like this

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Post by Mike Naso on Sept 12, 2021 11:45:01 GMT -6

Sept 12, 2021 10:14:31 GMT -6 neworleansmike said:

Rookie question here ….how confident is the track at this point ? I know with Ida they had it pretty dame close Tuesday morning, and it hit Sunday. I know there’s steering currents and the such that steer these storms, but what are you guys seeing on this ? i can only assure the models being in louisiana one day and back to texas and back to louisiana must indicate some sort of high or strong moving in or pulling out etc ? also any thoughts on strength ? everyone nailed IDA’s RI ….is that a concern here ? i mean it did go
from a blob of poop last night straight to Nicholas this morning. Thanks guys and gals as always !

Not as confident after a slowdown. Being trapped in weak steering currents can produce more uncertainty.

neworleansmike
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 11:52:03 GMT -6 via mobile Mike Naso likes this

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Post by neworleansmike on Sept 12, 2021 11:52:03 GMT -6

Sept 12, 2021 11:45:01 GMT -6 Mike Naso said:

Sept 12, 2021 10:14:31 GMT -6 neworleansmike said:

Rookie question here ….how confident is the track at this point ? I know with Ida they had it pretty dame close Tuesday morning, and it hit Sunday. I know there’s steering currents and the such that steer these storms, but what are you guys seeing on this ? i can only assure the models being in louisiana one day and back to texas and back to louisiana must indicate some sort of high or strong moving in or pulling out etc ? also any thoughts on strength ? everyone nailed IDA’s RI ….is that a concern here ? i mean it did go
from a blob of poop last night straight to Nicholas this morning. Thanks guys and gals as always !

Not as confident after a slowdown. Being trapped in weak steering currents can produce more uncertainty.

Thanks Mike

hurricaner
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 11:58:39 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Sept 12, 2021 11:58:39 GMT -6

Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

...NICHOLAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 95.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Last Edit: Sept 12, 2021 11:59:01 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 12:18:01 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Sept 12, 2021 12:18:01 GMT -6

Zack Fradella
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 13:09:48 GMT -6 via mobile Mike Naso and abitamom like this

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Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 12, 2021 13:09:48 GMT -6

12Z EURO drops 61” of rain in Texas. Crazy stuff!

I guess the good news is it gets the storm inland so fast that strengthening wouldn’t be of great concern.

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gulfbreeze
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 13:09:53 GMT -6

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Post by gulfbreeze on Sept 12, 2021 13:09:53 GMT -6

Sept 12, 2021 10:14:03 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Sept 12, 2021 10:05:18 GMT -6 ndg said:

The good news for SE LA is that the 12z GFS shifted west towards with the rest of the models.

The bad news is it stalls it right over central LA.

Not a professional forecast by any means and should not be viewed as such - just my opinion. Audrey'57, Carla'61 Hilda'64, Betsy'65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Gustav'08, Ike'08, No-Name'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.

Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 13:22:54 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP on Sept 12, 2021 13:22:54 GMT -6

Sept 12, 2021 10:14:03 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Sept 12, 2021 10:05:18 GMT -6 ndg said:

The good news for SE LA is that the 12z GFS shifted west towards with the rest of the models.

The bad news is it stalls it right over central LA.

It stalls in central Louisiana with us being on the East side, would we get more rain than what's currently forecasted?

SONS RULE

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ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 13:26:14 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Sept 12, 2021 13:26:14 GMT -6 Too bad Recon did not sampled this eddy near 22.8N & 95.15W before leaving the area that looks to becoming the main LLC to the NE of the CoC of broad circulation. Is moving almost due N if not NNW.

hurricaner
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 13:26:29 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Sept 12, 2021 13:26:29 GMT -6

Sept 12, 2021 13:09:48 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

12Z EURO drops 61” of rain in Texas. Crazy stuff!

I guess the good news is it gets the storm inland so fast that strengthening wouldn’t be of great concern.

Zack can you show the graphic on that curious about where this is.

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weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 13:40:53 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Sept 12, 2021 13:40:53 GMT -6
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 13:47:54 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 12, 2021 13:47:54 GMT -6

Sept 12, 2021 13:26:29 GMT -6 hurricaner said:

Sept 12, 2021 13:09:48 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

12Z EURO drops 61” of rain in Texas. Crazy stuff!

I guess the good news is it gets the storm inland so fast that strengthening wouldn’t be of great concern.

Zack can you show the graphic on that curious about where this is.

crashtestdummy
Category 3

Posts: 646
Location: Pearland, Texas

HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2021 13:49:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by crashtestdummy on Sept 12, 2021 13:49:37 GMT -6

Sept 12, 2021 13:09:48 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

12Z EURO drops 61” of rain in Texas. Crazy stuff!

I guess the good news is it gets the storm inland so fast that strengthening wouldn’t be of great concern.

Ugh! Allison rerun!! Oh wait, Harvey rerun! Oh wait....

As I tell my colleagues who work in other parts of the world, it's not the wind you need to be worried about, it's the water. I pray that forecast is way too high.

"You can learn a lot from a dummy."

Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread

Post by neworleansmike on Sept 12, 2021 10:14:31 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 12, 2021 10:42:50 GMT -6

Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Sept 12, 2021 11:24:58 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Sept 12, 2021 11:45:01 GMT -6

Post by neworleansmike on Sept 12, 2021 11:52:03 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Sept 12, 2021 11:58:39 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Sept 12, 2021 12:18:01 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 12, 2021 13:09:48 GMT -6

Post by gulfbreeze on Sept 12, 2021 13:09:53 GMT -6

Post by Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP on Sept 12, 2021 13:22:54 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 12, 2021 13:26:14 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Sept 12, 2021 13:26:29 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Sept 12, 2021 13:40:53 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 12, 2021 13:47:54 GMT -6

Post by crashtestdummy on Sept 12, 2021 13:49:37 GMT -6

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