HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread

However it does weaken as it reaches landfall due to dry coming into the system from the west.




Note: the tan and brown represent dry air at the mid levels in the atmosphere.

What???

The NHC may start PTC's later today.

Showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche and southern
Gulf of Mexico have been increasing during the past several hours
near and east of a surface trough of low pressure. A tropical
depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the
system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of
northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through
the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and
interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
morning, and potential tropical cyclone advisories could be
initiated later today.


Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce
heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, including the
western Yucatan Peninsula, which may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions
of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat
continuing across those coasts through the middle of the week.
Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially
resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

06z GFS doesn't do SW La. any favors.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have increased
overnight and are showing signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the
system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of
northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the
middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests
along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the
progress of this disturbance as watches may be required for portions
of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and Texas later this morning or
this afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
en route to investigate the system this morning.


Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce
heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, which may lead
to flash flooding and mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is
expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with
a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through
the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are
possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and
isolated river flooding.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

This morning's Sat.

Soooooooo, is the thinking from the other day still the same that weaker storm would be more of a Texas problem and stronger storm would be more of a Louisiana problem? Is that the same thinking or has that changed?