INVEST 91L Discussion Thread (Central Atlantic)

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hurricaner
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INVEST 91L Discussion Thread (Central Atlantic) Sept 27, 2021 21:07:50 GMT -6

Quote

Post by hurricaner on Sept 27, 2021 21:07:50 GMT -6

The wave west of 90L is now Invest 91L.

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Last Edit: Sept 27, 2021 21:08:05 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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hurricaner
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INVEST 91L Discussion Thread (Central Atlantic) Sept 28, 2021 7:02:14 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Sept 28, 2021 7:02:14 GMT -6

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce an area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Last Edit: Sept 28, 2021 7:02:29 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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hurricaner
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INVEST 91L Discussion Thread (Central Atlantic) Sept 28, 2021 18:23:55 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Sept 28, 2021 18:23:55 GMT -6

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could still form
during the next couple of days if the disturbance does not get
absorbed into the stronger low pressure system located to its east.
The broad low is expected to move slowly west-northwestward to
westward over the central tropical Atlantic during the next few
days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Last Edit: Sept 28, 2021 18:24:11 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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hurricaner
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INVEST 91L Discussion Thread (Central Atlantic) Sept 29, 2021 7:11:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by hurricaner on Sept 29, 2021 7:11:06 GMT -6

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Development of this system appears less
likely due to the interaction with the larger low pressure area
located to its east. The system is forecast to drift
west-northwestward over the tropical central Atlantic during the
next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Last Edit: Sept 29, 2021 7:11:24 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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SKYSUMMIT: I keep forgetting we have a chat box down here lol May 4, 2023 15:48:01 GMT -6

saintlybraves: where is this so called "low" supposed to develop? Any better indications with modeling today? We are going to Destin this week and of course I'd like for a more westerly setup. Apr 10, 2023 16:04:49 GMT -6

mysterionz: hello I’m new here Apr 3, 2023 15:56:46 GMT -6

frankp: Hey neighbor can u please send me the local Alabama weather forum that you follow, much appreciated… frank Jan 21, 2023 13:57:45 GMT -6

frankp: Hey neighbor, can u send the the link of the Alabama weather forum you visit, much appreciated Jan 21, 2023 13:55:49 GMT -6

HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: :snowing: Nov 25, 2022 19:25:19 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6

stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago. Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football! Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6

PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues! Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6

gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ? Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6

PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie. Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6

nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted. Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it. Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6

PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message! Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6

PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him. Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6