The disturbance off the East Coast is now Invest 92L with a 40% chance of development.
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of South Carolina is gradually becoming better defined. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions could briefly become marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical characteristics by Saturday night and early Sunday. By early next week, the low is expected to interact with a frontal boundary, which should end the opportunity for any subtropical or tropical formation. The low is forecast to meander offshore the Carolinas today, and then slowly move back toward the west-northwest and northwest on Saturday, bringing the system closer to the coast of North Carolina. Interests along the coast of North and South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty winds will affect eastern portions of the Carolinas through the weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Saturday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 8, 2021 12:47:28 GMT -6 by hurricaner
Post by hurricaner on Oct 10, 2021 18:54:45 GMT -6
A non-tropical low pressure area located about 75 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Recent radar and satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low has become less defined since this morning. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any further development of this system while it moves slowly northward or north-northeastward through Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are still possible over portions of the North Caroling Outer Banks through Monday and information on these hazards can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. Additional information on this low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 10, 2021 18:55:14 GMT -6 by hurricaner