Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook

HarahanTim - Now in Covington!
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Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 11, 2021 5:50:06 GMT -6

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Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Nov 11, 2021 5:50:06 GMT -6

We are two weeks out, from Thanksgiving Day, so I know plenty of folks will be looking this way for a heads up on the weather, both locally along the gulf coast, as well as popular travel spots.
Feel free to post any Thanksgiving related weather forecasts here.

Last Edit: Nov 25, 2021 20:54:55 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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HarahanTim - Now in Covington!
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Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 11, 2021 5:52:31 GMT -6 Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP likes this

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Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Nov 11, 2021 5:52:31 GMT -6

The GFS has put on its flip flops, concerning the weather that week.
A couple of runs show it pretty mild, then a couple of runs show it rather cool.
The latest, 06z run this morning, does have a cold front coming through the deep south, the Monday of Thanksgiving week, and keeping it with a chill in the air, most of the week.
To be continued! LOL

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bstelly24-Pearl River, LA Meteorology Student Posts: 668	Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 14, 2021 23:08:38 GMT -6 harpman likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by bstelly24-Pearl River, LA on Nov 14, 2021 23:08:38 GMT -6 Well then. Attachments:

darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 1,624 Member is Online	Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 15, 2021 9:11:29 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on Nov 15, 2021 9:11:29 GMT -6 I know cold weather is hard to predict...but this would be awesome for the holidays

HarahanTim - Now in Covington! Moderator Director of Public Relations Posts: 6,035 Staff Member	Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 16, 2021 7:34:31 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Nov 16, 2021 7:34:31 GMT -6 Just over a week out, and the GFS seems to be honing in, on a mild Thanksgiving Day, along the gulf coast, with another cold front pushing through that Friday/Saturday.
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darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 1,624 Member is Online	Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 16, 2021 11:01:38 GMT -6 via mobile trueblue likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on Nov 16, 2021 11:01:38 GMT -6 Yeah and it sucks!! So tired of mild holidays

thermalwind - Touro
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Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 16, 2021 13:40:16 GMT -6 harpman likes this

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Post by thermalwind - Touro on Nov 16, 2021 13:40:16 GMT -6

It's just bad luck to be in a warmer phase during the period because the signal is looking very good now for cold in the east for the end of the month. -NAO flexes, generally ridging west/troughing east.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,966 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 17, 2021 7:15:12 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 17, 2021 7:15:12 GMT -6 Flip flop pattern coming though. While we may be seeing a cooler than normal end of the month, the beginning of December looks to flip to summer (as usual when we're cooler in November). End of November: Beginning of December:
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TalonII Category 1 Posts: 394	Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 17, 2021 7:46:18 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by TalonII on Nov 17, 2021 7:46:18 GMT -6 As long as it flips back for the end of December!
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harpman
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Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 17, 2021 8:29:41 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by harpman on Nov 17, 2021 8:29:41 GMT -6

Nov 17, 2021 7:15:12 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Flip flop pattern coming though. While we may be seeing a cooler than normal end of the month, the beginning of December looks to flip to summer (as usual when we're cooler in November).

End of November:

Beginning of December:

I knew it!!!! 😡😡😡😡

Blowin' harp!

darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 1,624 Member is Online	Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 17, 2021 9:09:01 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on Nov 17, 2021 9:09:01 GMT -6 Smh!!!!!

thermalwind - Touro
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Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 17, 2021 12:15:02 GMT -6

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Post by thermalwind - Touro on Nov 17, 2021 12:15:02 GMT -6

Nov 17, 2021 7:15:12 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Beginning of December:

I'm not 100% sold on the timing of the flip around (though that 348 map does make me do the ski dance), but you do figure it's coming at some point in the first week or two of December.

Last Edit: Nov 17, 2021 12:15:20 GMT -6 by thermalwind - Touro

HarahanTim - Now in Covington!
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Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 18, 2021 7:18:52 GMT -6

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Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Nov 18, 2021 7:18:52 GMT -6

The GFS continues showing the back and forth, flip flops, with the cold fronts pushing through, every few days. The 06z, this morning, continues to have a mild Thanksgiving Day, with the cold moving in on Friday, with widespread 30's, Sunday and Monday morning.

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SKYSUMMIT
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Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 18, 2021 7:27:43 GMT -6 HarahanTim - Now in Covington!, thermalwind - Touro, and 1 more like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 18, 2021 7:27:43 GMT -6

Nov 18, 2021 7:18:52 GMT -6 HarahanTim - Now in Covington! said:

The GFS continues showing the back and forth, flip flops, with the cold fronts pushing through, every few days. The 06z, this morning, continues to have a mild Thanksgiving Day, with the cold moving in on Friday, with widespread 30's, Sunday and Monday morning.

I'll actually pull for this scenario! Crissy and I will be in Natchez that weekend for their lighting of the Christmas Tree.

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darius Bogalusa
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Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook Nov 18, 2021 13:20:20 GMT -6 via mobile thermalwind - Touro likes this

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Post by darius Bogalusa on Nov 18, 2021 13:20:20 GMT -6

I wish the front would be here in time for Thanksgiving, but I will settle for chilly weather the day after also....I will have a bunch of family home...We have a tradition to decorate for Christmas and all of us starting our Christmas shopping that weekend....So I guess cold weather will set the feel of the holidays🙃

saintlybraves: where is this so called "low" supposed to develop? Any better indications with modeling today? We are going to Destin this week and of course I'd like for a more westerly setup. Apr 10, 2023 16:04:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

Thanksgiving Day/Week Outlook

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Nov 11, 2021 5:50:06 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Nov 11, 2021 5:52:31 GMT -6

Post by bstelly24-Pearl River, LA on Nov 14, 2021 23:08:38 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Nov 15, 2021 9:11:29 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Nov 16, 2021 7:34:31 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Nov 16, 2021 11:01:38 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Nov 16, 2021 13:40:16 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 17, 2021 7:15:12 GMT -6

Post by TalonII on Nov 17, 2021 7:46:18 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Nov 17, 2021 8:29:41 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Nov 17, 2021 9:09:01 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Nov 17, 2021 12:15:02 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Nov 18, 2021 7:18:52 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 18, 2021 7:27:43 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Nov 18, 2021 13:20:20 GMT -6

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