SEVERE WEATHER THREAT 2-16 to 2-17

Low CAPE/tons of shear

Timing is going to matter, as of its just a little bit slower it'll be an afternoon event for the south and there will be more instability to work with.

Dont want anything popping off in the warm sector with the shear available.

Dynamics will be lifting out too quickly with this event tomorrow. Not much forcing expected down here along the Gulf Coast so a generic line of storms looks most likely.

In the December part of the LRC, this yielding a bad outbreak to our north mainly because we were so warm/humid already. Now that the Gulf is colder, you need time for the atmosphere to recover.

The more I study our severe weather and the "big" events...westerly winds in mid levels makes all the difference for us. Our biggest events come from warm front convection (which is typically west winds) or the right position of a trough bringing more west mid level winds rather than SW. 

Am I reading that right? What about west winds in the mid levels causes storms to develop and move SE? Why not just eastward?

That makes sense. The worst severe storms I’ve ever experienced came from west to east. The worst one hit Donaldsonville on April 7, 2003. That was a mean SOB! Very strong winds, enormous hail, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the there was a tornado close by. It hit at around 1 or 2 in the afternoon but it was pitch black. I mean BLACK before it hit. Like midnight black with a touch of green. I had never seen anything like that before and haven’t since that day. Definitely a once in a lifetime storm in my opinion. And the storm even spun like a mini hurricane on radar! If someone could post a radar loop of that storm I would be forever grateful. I’ve searched for it for years and can’t find it.