Post by Zack Fradella on Mar 21, 2022 4:55:50 GMT -6
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
Zack, what is the timeframe for the severe threat in southeast Louisiana (Houma/Terrebonne)? Hoping it holds off at least until school dismissal at 3:00 - 3:30. Thoughts?
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
It looks like the probability percentages have been lowered from 45 yesterday to 15 today? Or, am I totally messing that up?
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
It looks like the probability percentages have been lowered from 45 yesterday to 15 today? Or, am I totally messing that up?
Day 3 shows an overall percentage, now it's broken down into specific severe threats so you can't compare the two.
Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Mar 21, 2022 7:05:04 GMT -6
So what’s the outlook now that the overnight updates have come in? I’m not seeing much here and on another site so I’m assuming they’ve backed off a tad?
So what’s the outlook now that the overnight updates have come in? I’m not seeing much here and on another site so I’m assuming they’ve backed off a tad?
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
Forgive my lack of knowledge but is this post saying the models are suggesting just the main squall line without the pre-frontal storm cells?
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
Forgive my lack of knowledge but is this post saying the models are suggesting just the main squall line without the pre-frontal storm cells?
Correct, HRRR/GRAF are dominated with that intense squall line.
I just caution how these hi-res models struggle with warm air advection storms forming ahead of the main line.
Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 21, 2022 9:00:23 GMT -6
Hi-res models showing a distinct line of storms I'd bet on, just timing may be a bit ahead or behind.
Models showing or not showing discrete cells ahead of a squall line would only tell us the model sees the atmosphere would or would not support it.....I wouldn't bet on either way if the model does or does not show discreet cell formation, and certainly would put almost no creedence in the location of those cells.
As they develop we will be in very short term radar estimate mode for paths and timing.
![](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204710_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png")
