Post by Zack Fradella on Mar 21, 2022 4:55:50 GMT -6
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
Zack, what is the timeframe for the severe threat in southeast Louisiana (Houma/Terrebonne)? Hoping it holds off at least until school dismissal at 3:00 - 3:30. Thoughts?
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
It looks like the probability percentages have been lowered from 45 yesterday to 15 today? Or, am I totally messing that up?
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
It looks like the probability percentages have been lowered from 45 yesterday to 15 today? Or, am I totally messing that up?
Day 3 shows an overall percentage, now it's broken down into specific severe threats so you can't compare the two.
Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Mar 21, 2022 7:05:04 GMT -6
So what’s the outlook now that the overnight updates have come in? I’m not seeing much here and on another site so I’m assuming they’ve backed off a tad?
So what’s the outlook now that the overnight updates have come in? I’m not seeing much here and on another site so I’m assuming they’ve backed off a tad?
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
Forgive my lack of knowledge but is this post saying the models are suggesting just the main squall line without the pre-frontal storm cells?
I'm showing the GRAF on air and it has a mean squall line coming through with multiple bowing segments. It doesn't really produce the storms ahead of the main line.
Now both the GRAF and HRRR--honestly all hi-res models struggle with warm air convection storm development.
Forgive my lack of knowledge but is this post saying the models are suggesting just the main squall line without the pre-frontal storm cells?
Correct, HRRR/GRAF are dominated with that intense squall line.
I just caution how these hi-res models struggle with warm air advection storms forming ahead of the main line.
Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 21, 2022 9:00:23 GMT -6
Hi-res models showing a distinct line of storms I'd bet on, just timing may be a bit ahead or behind.
Models showing or not showing discrete cells ahead of a squall line would only tell us the model sees the atmosphere would or would not support it.....I wouldn't bet on either way if the model does or does not show discreet cell formation, and certainly would put almost no creedence in the location of those cells.
As they develop we will be in very short term radar estimate mode for paths and timing.
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
