TROPICAL STORM ALEX - Discussion Thread

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low
pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. This system is currently producing poorly
organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects
of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The central
pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed
winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center. Due to the
possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with
impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula
and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas.

The initial motion is 360/3. The system should turn northeastward
during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should
continue through the end of the forecast period. The guidance is
in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday. It should be noted that the guidance
suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to
convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track
superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion.

The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very
uncertain. It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum
winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction
with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant
development over the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance does suggests
slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity
forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in
about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h. However, these winds
are likely to be well removed from the center. Interaction with a
mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over
the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast.
Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over
portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the
Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this
system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue
through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba.

2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida
Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and
urban flooding is possible across the urban corridors in South
Florida and in the Keys.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and are possible in the watch
area in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Friday night and
Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0600Z 22.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 03/1800Z 23.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 24.8N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 26.5N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 28.7N 79.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 33.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 36.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven