TROPICAL STORM ALEX - Discussion Thread

Looks like recon has found tropical storm force winds.

The recon plane has found some west winds now lets see if it named at 10am.

They keep it as PTC One at the 10am

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the circulation associated with the disturbance has become a
little better defined over the Gulf of Mexico north of the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and that the central pressure is
near 1002 mb. However, the associated convection is poorly
organized, with radar data from Cuba and Mexico showing that the
strong convection over the northwestern Caribbean Sea more resembles
a mid-latitude squall line than a tropical cyclone rain band. In
addition, the airplane has yet to report tropical-storm force winds,
although it has not yet sampled the areas of stronger convection.
Based on the current data, the system has not yet become a tropical
storm and will remain a potential tropical cyclone on this advisory.

Yeah, ridiculously disorganized. He should be ashamed of himself.

It appears that when all is said and done, this mess did indeed split the difference between the GFS and the EURO. It's not quite traversing through the Florida Keys, but it's not quite as far north as Central Florida either, or so it seems to me.

Yeah, Sky, looks like most of the shower activity is over Miami. Not a great beach day there.