HURRICANE IDALIA - Discussion Thread

Evening video update on TD-10
Video Update

Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023


...DEPRESSION BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
A FEW DAYS...



SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

The small circulation of Tropical Depression Ten continues to be
well-defined in Cancun radar, with the center moving across Cozumel
during the past few hours. Data from a Weatherflow sensor on the
island indicated that the pressure dropped to about 1001 mb, with
sustained winds of about 30 kt. A small burst of convection has
formed just south of the center recently, with scattered banding
features in the eastern semicircle. Most of the satellite
estimates are just shy of tropical storm strength, so the initial
winds speed will stay 30 kt. Both Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be in the system later this morning
to get a better look at the structure and winds.

The depression has turned southward tonight, moving at about 4 kt,
apparently rotating around the western periphery of its larger
parent circulation to the east. Little net motion is expected for
about a day as steering currents remain weak. After that time, a
developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico and stronger ridging over
the western Atlantic is expected to lift the system toward the north
and north-northeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This track
takes the system toward Florida, and then near the southeastern
coast of the U.S. The overnight model guidance is a bit farther
west and slower than the last cycle, probably due to the depression
being further south than anticipated. Thus, the NHC forecast is
nudged westward, and lies on the east side of the guidance envelope.
These are small changes overall, and the track should be considered
lower confidence until it starts moving in a more consistent manner.
The NOAA G-IV aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
help smooth out the model differences along with special upper-air
soundings scheduled across many areas of the southeastern United
States.

The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during
the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-
level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the
western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to
decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There's a notable
risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the
record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is
highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC
forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model
consensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big
changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the
upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are
reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the
system's expected intensity as it approaches Florida.

The 00z HWRF shows her eye opening up just as she's making landfall late Tuesday night.

I hope we catch a break, and this decides to fall apart where it's at. I can go a few more years without a storm impacting the U.S. Insurance market.

Also, those added storm related fees that Entergy charges on the electricity bills kind of sucks too.