Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd

SKYSUMMIT
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Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 24, 2024 19:34:47 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 24, 2024 19:34:47 GMT -6

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
733 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

MSC059-250445-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FA.Y.0006.240125T0133Z-240125T0445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jackson MS-
733 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of southern Mississippi, including the following
county, Jackson.

* WHEN...Until 1045 PM CST.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is
imminent.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 733 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain
have fallen.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected
over the area. This additional rain will result in minor
flooding.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Ocean Springs, Moss Point, Escatawpa, Gautier, Helena,
Hickory Hills, Vancleave, Big Point, Wade, Hurley, Gulf Park
Estates and Gulf Hills.
- www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3040 8882 3073 8867 3074 8841 3039 8839
3038 8841 3035 8839 3036 8844 3033 8845
3032 8849 3035 8851 3033 8851 3035 8858
3037 8859 3036 8860 3037 8860 3034 8873
3039 8881 3039 8879

$$

Zeringue

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
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NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

harpman
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 6,805

Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 24, 2024 19:37:57 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this

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Post by harpman on Jan 24, 2024 19:37:57 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 19:33:02 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Jan 24, 2024 18:01:53 GMT -6 harpman said:

Anyone hear from Zack? I know he’s in Covington.

He's good. I just texted him. He said his street isn't even flooded.

Thanks, Scott. Good news

SKYSUMMIT
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Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 24, 2024 19:46:32 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 24, 2024 19:46:32 GMT -6

Area Hydrological Discussion #019 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
7:38 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

WHAT: Flash, urban, and river flooding impacts continue
WHERE: Southeast Texas into Louisiana
WHEN: Through the night

FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 2 - 4" (WPC/HRRR)
Rates: 0.5 - 1.5"/hr (WPC/HRRR)
QPE: 3 - 6+" (MRMS 24 hours)
Soils: Saturated (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: High (USGS)

DISCUSSION...
Continued rainfall through the overnight hours is expected to
continue across southeast TX and Louisiana bringing additional flash
and urban flooding impacts to the already saturated region. Soils are
already saturated and streamflows are running high from recent
rainfall. Any additional rainfall through the night will quickly be
converted to runoff and possibly produce more out-of-bank flows.

The National Water Model (NWM) Short-Range Forecast (SRF) is
indicating new rises on smaller streams and rivers. The NWM Maximum
High Flow Magnitude Forecast is showing ongoing significant flows
with the potential for new isolated rises (shown). Despite the modest
additional rainfall overnight, the rainfall will be persistent and
there will be potential for training. These factors suggest that
flash and urban flooding impacts will be possible through the
overnight hours. Rivers will also continue to rise overnight and
remain elevated through the end of the week resulting in moderate to
isolated major river flooding impacts.

GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd

Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations

//Smith

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV
ATTN...RFC...ORN...FWR...WPC

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Nolasaints
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 173

Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 24, 2024 19:48:39 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish and charitymike-Bridge City WB like this

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Post by Nolasaints on Jan 24, 2024 19:48:39 GMT -6

What’s the outlook for the rest of tonight and tomorrow for the Northshore? It’s raining some in Mandeville now, but nothing major. Looks like rain has shifted a little west over towards Ponchatoula and Hammond. However, with our local radar down it’s hard to see what’s coming,

Also curious what the high res models are showing for the next 24 hours.

tcane
Category 1

Posts: 211

Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 24, 2024 22:06:25 GMT -6 Nolasaints likes this

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Post by tcane on Jan 24, 2024 22:06:25 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 19:48:39 GMT -6 Nolasaints said:

What’s the outlook for the rest of tonight and tomorrow for the Northshore? It’s raining some in Mandeville now, but nothing major. Looks like rain has shifted a little west over towards Ponchatoula and Hammond. However, with our local radar down it’s hard to see what’s coming,

Also curious what the high res models are showing for the next 24 hours.

The fox 8 hi res seemed to have good news for the fox 8 viewing area. The big amounts of rain for the city at midday tomorrow seemed to be pushed to the south of New Orleans. Almost like looping around it.

cajungal
Category 5

Posts: 6,377

Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 24, 2024 22:14:23 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by cajungal on Jan 24, 2024 22:14:23 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 22:06:25 GMT -6 tcane said:

Jan 24, 2024 19:48:39 GMT -6 Nolasaints said:

What’s the outlook for the rest of tonight and tomorrow for the Northshore? It’s raining some in Mandeville now, but nothing major. Looks like rain has shifted a little west over towards Ponchatoula and Hammond. However, with our local radar down it’s hard to see what’s coming,

Also curious what the high res models are showing for the next 24 hours.

The fox 8 hi res seemed to have good news for the fox 8 viewing area. The big amounts of rain for the city at midday tomorrow seemed to be pushed to the south of New Orleans. Almost like looping around it.

Well hope that doesn’t mean Thibodaux. Thank goodness it stopped late this evening. Most of the water has went down for my area

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

lawx
Category 1

Posts: 105

Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 24, 2024 23:43:48 GMT -6

Quote

Post by lawx on Jan 24, 2024 23:43:48 GMT -6

Jan 24, 2024 19:48:39 GMT -6 Nolasaints said:

What’s the outlook for the rest of tonight and tomorrow for the Northshore? It’s raining some in Mandeville now, but nothing major. Looks like rain has shifted a little west over towards Ponchatoula and Hammond. However, with our local radar down it’s hard to see what’s coming,

Also curious what the high res models are showing for the next 24 hours.

HRRR is saying 1-2” through tomorrow night

Last Edit: Jan 24, 2024 23:45:18 GMT -6 by lawx

SKYSUMMIT
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Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 25, 2024 5:54:04 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2024 5:54:04 GMT -6

Mesoscale Discussion 0090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

Areas affected...Central/Southwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251048Z - 251245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and/or isolated instances of small
hail are possible across central and southwest LA over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery reveals a convective line
extending from the central LA/TX border vicinity southward along the
Sabine River into far southeast TX/TX Golden Triangle. This line has
shown an increase in intensity over the past hour or so, likely
resulting from increasing large-scale ascent attendant negatively
tilted shortwave trough moving into the central portions of the
southern Plains. Prevailing low-level stability and elevated
character of this line has limited the severe potential thus far,
although a gust of 40 kt was reported at GLS.

Dewpoints are in the upper 50s to low 60s within the airmass
preceding the line over central and southwest LA. This limited
low-level moisture is expected to result in a prevalence of the
low-stability, keeping the overall severe potential low. Best chance
of a damaging gust will be across southwest/south-central LA where
the best low-level moisture is located. Linear storm mode suggests
the hail potential is low as well, but the combination of modest
elevated buoyancy with strong shear could result in isolated
instances of small hail.

..Mosier/Goss.. 01/25/2024

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United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Zack Fradella
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Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 25, 2024 6:25:37 GMT -6

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Post by Zack Fradella on Jan 25, 2024 6:25:37 GMT -6

Today's line will be too progressive to cause any major issues. Looks more like a severe weather line than a heavy rain risk.

Tomorrow is my concern. That batch of storms forming in the morning could really get us in the city down to the coast.

Zack Fradella
FOX 8 Meteorologist
StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder

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schexstorm Tropical Low Posts: 20 Location: New Iberia	Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 25, 2024 7:09:51 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by schexstorm on Jan 25, 2024 7:09:51 GMT -6 New Iberia is under a severe thunderstorm warning currently- the line should be pushing through about 7:30am

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,377	Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 25, 2024 7:18:12 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Jan 25, 2024 7:18:12 GMT -6 We can deal with progressive moving. Yesterday it was just pouring here in Thibodaux for hours with no breaks
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

wilee81 GCWX Supporter Posts: 651	Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 25, 2024 8:20:35 GMT -6 via mobile HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by wilee81 on Jan 25, 2024 8:20:35 GMT -6 Line just arrived in BR. It's ahead of the predicted 9 arrival time, so it's definitely moving

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 25, 2024 9:09:20 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2024 9:09:20 GMT -6 It's almost to me in Hammond. It'll be here and out of here pretty quick from the looks of it. i.imgur.com/4SxJqXD.jpg [/img]
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 25, 2024 9:19:20 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2024 9:19:20 GMT -6 WOW that line had some wind! Our front porch furniture is scattered around the yard.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
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Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd Jan 25, 2024 9:19:55 GMT -6

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2024 9:19:55 GMT -6

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
916 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Tangipahoa Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Washington Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
Walthall County in southern Mississippi...
Southeastern Pike County in southern Mississippi...

* Until 1000 AM CST.

* At 916 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Osyka to near Wilmer, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Bogalusa, Franklinton, Kentwood, Tylertown, Varnado, Osyka, Dexter,
Mount Herman, Wilmer, Tangipahoa, and Angie.

This includes Interstate 55 in Louisiana between mile markers 63 and
66.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in New Orleans.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 9003 3117 9000 3113 9000 3113 8994
3107 8992 3107 8984 3100 8983 3100 8973
3097 8973 3088 8978 3081 8978 3071 9023
3071 9026 3070 9025 3065 9046 3099 9053
3124 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 244DEG 32KT 3095 9043 3073 9038

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TJS

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Flooding Rains Potential - Week of January 22nd

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 24, 2024 19:34:47 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Jan 24, 2024 19:37:57 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 24, 2024 19:46:32 GMT -6

Post by Nolasaints on Jan 24, 2024 19:48:39 GMT -6

Post by tcane on Jan 24, 2024 22:06:25 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Jan 24, 2024 22:14:23 GMT -6

Post by lawx on Jan 24, 2024 23:43:48 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2024 5:54:04 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Jan 25, 2024 6:25:37 GMT -6

Post by schexstorm on Jan 25, 2024 7:09:51 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Jan 25, 2024 7:18:12 GMT -6

Post by wilee81 on Jan 25, 2024 8:20:35 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2024 9:09:20 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2024 9:19:20 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2024 9:19:55 GMT -6

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