[H]HURRICANE DEBBY - Discussion Thread

I went back and read the archived Hurricane Isaac threads. Sort of a similar set up. Weak/ill-defined system in the Caribbean, did some bouncing around the Greater Antilles, tugged north a bit by a trough, and then the ridging built back in over the Central and Eastern U.S. and it slowed to a crawl into landfall in the Central Gulf Coast. Not calling a repeat of this, but I've seen this angle of approach move through the islands as a weak system and the track just inches west and west and west. Every storm is different, but there are a lot of synoptic similarities.

Thanks Sky - so it possibly could be sitting in the GOM hovering the La. coastline (or east of us) into next week - maybe around August 8 or sooner?  Any big strengthening expected or will this mainly be a flood maker?  

12z ICON Florida big bend area.

Possible recon missions for 97L set for tomorrow.


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE SYSTEM SURVEY MISSION INTO SUSPECT AREA NEAR
22.5N 74.0W FOR 02/1800Z.

B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO SUSPECT
AREA NEAR 23.0N 75.0W FOR 03/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT
02/2000Z, AND THEN NEAR 25.0N 76.5W FOR 03/1200Z, DEPARTING
KLAL AT 03/0800Z.

Yep, GFS exits stage right over Florida/Georgia albeit slowly. 06z EPS members are 95% Florida bound...just 2 or 3 come to Louisiana. Icon is east too. Gotta like the latest runs but will like them even better when the LLC forms and shows the same path.

06z vs 12z comparison. A wider spread on the recent run to be sure. 




Also, quite a few more members in the GOM lingering to the west than last run. 

Seems like the large complex of storms north of the DR will get choked off from the downsloping and will begin to weaken.  I'll be paying close attention to the 500mb vort max south of the DR where the other big blow up of convection is.  That seems better placed to maintain itself.