[H]HURRICANE DEBBY - Discussion Thread

Do you think this could affect the track to move more westward?

Okay. That was what I was curious about; whether the more southern formation would get it far enough away to keep it from being pulled north. Thanks.

PTC #4 is looking better and better by the hour for sure. Obtaining that circular buzzsaw outflow storm "look". It's looking like a very large circulation indeed.

It does look south of Cuba, but are we are seeing the mid level circulation? As far as I know there is no low level circulation? Nothing I could see on visible today. Didn't they have a plane investigating the area today? Did they pinpoint the lowest pressure? Maybe that's where they put the center. So far the Euro doesn't even show this developing in the Gulf. It does look impressive on satellite, except that no llc is apparent.

They did have a plane investigating today but they only flew on the north side of Cuba, as it was there mission to investigate that area.
"I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHEAST OF CUBA - AL97)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 02/1800Z
B. NOAA3 01FFA SURVEY
C. 02/1430Z
D. 21.8N 77.0W
E. 02/1530Z TO 02/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. SYSTEM SURVEY
H. WRA ACTIVATION"


As far as the MLC and the LLC, this is a developing storm so consolidation could happen anywhere along the wave axis. Personally, I'm just watching as we all should do.

Just wanted to add that on the other forum, Wxman posted a cool link to track PTC 4 against the NHC track: zoom.earth/storms/04l-2024/

000
WTNT44 KNHC 030250
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Shortwave infrared satellite imagery, Cuban radar data, and surface
observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands suggest that the
disturbance has developed a closed circulation, and the center is
located just off the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is still
a bit fragmented, but there has been a persistent burst near the
estimated center since earlier this afternoon. The wind and
pressure field could still be a little elongated within the
southern semicircle, but overall the system appears to have enough
organization to now be designated as a tropical depression. The
initial intensity remains 25 kt based on earlier observations.

The depression has not begun to turn yet, and the initial motion is
west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. A turn toward the northwest and
then north is expected over the weekend due to a break in the
subtropical ridge caused by a trough over the eastern United
States. Since the system has not started to turn yet, this has
caused all of the track guidance to shift west, and the updated NHC
forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast along the eastern
edge of the main cluster of models. It is important to note that
because of the forecast track being parallel to the west coast of
Florida, the location and timing of a potential landfall cannot be
pinned down at this time. One additional significant change to the
forecast is that the models seem to be showing the aforementioned
trough leaving the cyclone behind early next week, which causes a
much slower motion while the system is near the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina. As a result, the new NHC forecast is notably
slower than the previous forecast, particularly on days 4 and 5.

The westward shift to the track forecast now also keeps the system
over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico longer, giving the
system additional time to potentially strengthen. In fact, the
SHIPS guidance and all of the regional hurricane models show the
cyclone reaching hurricane strength before reaching land in the Big
Bend region of Florida in 2 to 3 days. As a result, the new NHC
forecast brings the intensity to 60 kt at 60 hours as the system is
reaching land, but if model trends continue, it's possible that
future forecasts could explicit show the system becoming a
hurricane before it reaches land. The intensity forecast is more
uncertain on days 3 through 5 due depending on if the center moves
back offshore or stays inland over the southeastern United States.