INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread

I just really hope that this isnt a repeat of 2016!

Agreed!!

That was when denim springs flooded REALLY badly. And the bad part was, it wasnt a named storm or anything. Just a bunch of rain came down at once!

The National Hurricane Center doesn't focus on the HRRR or GRAF when making tropical forecasts. This includes hurricanes or weak lows like this. Although I'd say the HRRR/GRAF are much better at seeing short-term trends when closing in on landfall compared to the global models.

Wow!

I really don't understand how the NHC isn't highlighting this thing. It's pretty obvious a closed low has developed, it's over 85+ degree water temps and convection is increasing. You can get into all the meteorology hoopla but this is why weather communication is a disaster.

Remember Olga.

This is from the NHC:

Tropical Storm Olga
25 OCTOBER 2019

SYNOPTIC HISTORY


The origin of Olga can be traced back to a well-defined tropical wave that crossed the west
coast of Africa on 8 October. Although affected by strong shear, the system’s associated
convection intermittently showed signs of organization during its westward trek across the tropical
Atlantic. On 17 October, the wave moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Over the next several
days, the system moved slowly westward across the Caribbean, while continuing to produce
intermittent deep convection. The wave reached Central America on 22 October and moved over
the Yucatan Peninsula on 23 October. On 24 October, the wave spawned a broad area of low
pressure over the Bay of Campeche. The low moved generally northward late on 24 October and
early on 25 October, but it did not develop a well-defined center of circulation until 1200 UTC 25
October. By that time, early morning visible satellite imagery indicated a definite closed circulation
had developed, and earlier scatterometer data suggested that the cyclone was of tropical storm
intensity at genesis. Olga was centered about 340 n mi south-southwest of Lake Charles,
Louisiana when it formed. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1,
with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions
and intensities are listed in Table 11.

Olga moved north-northeastward to northeastward on the east side of a deep-layer trough,
and strengthened to an intensity of 40 kt around 1800 UTC 25 October (cover image). The
system’s tropical cyclone status was short lived, since by 0000 UTC 26 October it became
embedded in a cold front and transformed into a 45-kt extratropical cyclone. The post-tropical
cyclone crossed the southeast Louisiana coast around 0700 UC 26 October.
After landfall, the post-tropical cyclone became a significant inland wind event. The
cyclone accelerated north-northeastward over Mississippi, western Tennessee, and extreme
western Kentucky on 26 October. The weakening system passed over eastern Illinois and moved
over Michigan on 27 October. Shortly after crossing Lake Huron later that day, the low dissipated
over Canada