[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Math Professor
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Location: Panama City, FL

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 21, 2024 19:56:42 GMT -6 via mobile lisamath likes this

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Post by Math Professor on Sept 21, 2024 19:56:42 GMT -6

Sept 21, 2024 19:49:30 GMT -6 shompy64 said:

Sept 21, 2024 19:40:33 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Looking like some consistency from models sending this one towards Florida or Alabama. Louisiana looking better, but we know this can still change

About to say the same thing. Definitely not all over the place anymore. Looks like anywhere from MS/AL border down to Tampa Bay are in play.

marshwarden
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 21, 2024 20:28:46 GMT -6 ju and SMCT - Pierre Part like this

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Post by marshwarden on Sept 21, 2024 20:28:46 GMT -6

The only visible real time action that appears to be tropical in nature that is developing a spin is on AccuWeather Radar for all to see.
Just take a look at the developing spin off of the Honduran / Nicaraguan Western Caribbean coast. The cloud formations in the Yucatan Channel
are raggedy and sparse by comparison. Take a look and see for yourself. South of Jamaica right now.

3:30 AM Sunday Radar Update: Clouds East of Yucatan Peninsula and in the channel went away! Major convection blowup between Jamaica
and Columbia showing on radar now; a big red blob north of Columbia. May be part of the Gyre? Interesting to watch...

Last Edit: Sept 22, 2024 2:52:28 GMT -6 by marshwarden

MobileWeatherWatcher Category 5 Posts: 3,041	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 21, 2024 22:19:23 GMT -6 lisamath and Math Professor like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 21, 2024 22:19:23 GMT -6 GFS further east between Tampa and the Big Bend. That could be surge issues for Tampa Bay on that run if it happens
	Last Edit: Sept 21, 2024 22:19:44 GMT -6 by MobileWeatherWatcher

Math Professor
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 21, 2024 22:54:19 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Math Professor on Sept 21, 2024 22:54:19 GMT -6

Sept 21, 2024 22:19:23 GMT -6 MobileWeatherWatcher said:

GFS further east between Tampa and the Big Bend. That could be surge issues for Tampa Bay on that run if it happens

Showing it at 949 when it comes on shore. Pretty strong. Would definitely cause some major surge there. Of course it’ll change between now and then.

Math Professor GCWX Supporter Posts: 136 Location: Panama City, FL	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 21, 2024 22:57:31 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Math Professor on Sept 21, 2024 22:57:31 GMT -6 The ICON 00z shows it just hanging out and still off show south of Big Bend on Sunday. Crazy.

homeymandeville Category 5 Posts: 1,517	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 2:16:22 GMT -6 via mobile Math Professor likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by homeymandeville on Sept 22, 2024 2:16:22 GMT -6 EURO has as many as 7-8 clustered between Pensacola and Biloxi. That is more than any other area. Need to look at the more concentrated area for a potential landfall.

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 3:14:30 GMT -6 marshwarden and lisamath like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Sept 22, 2024 3:14:30 GMT -6

lsuhurricane
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 4:10:53 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by lsuhurricane on Sept 22, 2024 4:10:53 GMT -6

6z GFS comes way west and hangs the upper level low back over OK/AR. Interesting wrinkle that both the Canadian/Euro have been advertising.

960 mb landfall near Pensacola/Destin. Will be some interesting ensemble runs

Last Edit: Sept 22, 2024 4:13:35 GMT -6 by lsuhurricane

Zack Fradella
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 4:17:59 GMT -6 via mobile marshwarden and lisamath like this

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Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 22, 2024 4:17:59 GMT -6

Yea, I woke up and was looking over all the 0Z data feeling better. Saying hey, maybe that trough doesn’t cut off and it helps create more of a NE motion which would be great for us.

Then the GFS at 6Z totally caves to the EURO and cuts that low off again. This induces a straight north motion into Destin. That’s a little too close for me within a 4-5 day forecast. Especially in this set up.

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trethe
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 4:54:28 GMT -6 Math Professor likes this

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Post by trethe on Sept 22, 2024 4:54:28 GMT -6

Yeah, seeing that shift further east on last night's 0z was comforting. The jump back towards the west, towards western Florida panhandle gives me pause. We will have to wait and see what the known, unknowns and the unknown, unknowns bring for the northern gulf coast.

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 5:00:18 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 22, 2024 5:00:18 GMT -6

Sept 22, 2024 4:54:28 GMT -6 trethe said:

Yeah, seeing that shift further east on last night's 0z was comforting. The jump back towards the west, towards western Florida panhandle gives me pause. We will have to wait and see what the known, unknowns and the unknown, unknowns bring for the northern gulf coast.

Icon kinda shows the same thing that gfs is showing at its 120 hour

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,426	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 5:22:10 GMT -6 shelbysmom — Jefferson, la, brandalyn74, and 8 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Sept 22, 2024 5:22:10 GMT -6 Happy Autumnal Equinox (First Day of Fall) to all my weather forum brothers and sisters!!! Bring on those "cool" fronts, Zack!!!

trethe
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 5:46:22 GMT -6

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Post by trethe on Sept 22, 2024 5:46:22 GMT -6

We are approaching the time where we can finally begin to watch in real time as things develop down in the Carribean. This morning's gfs shows the area of low pressure, which will eventually become the named system, forming within the next 24 hours down around Honduras/Nicaragua. Daylight satellite imagery will be interesting to watch as all of this unfolds in real time. Prayers to all of those who this potential tropical system impacts. May God's love bring you peace.

Kory
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 6:06:07 GMT -6 southpaw and geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex like this

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Post by Kory on Sept 22, 2024 6:06:07 GMT -6

This is a set up to me that run east of forecast track like Francine did. If its pointed at Mobile/Pensacola, I'd bet on the Big Bend area...maybe even more east. We're still 5ish days out with a system in the formative stages.

Why do I feel this way? Looks at the SW flow in the upper levels. Not super strong, but this'll nudge and then nudge a little more and over time you can shift the landfall point a decent bit.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

trethe
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 22, 2024 6:11:24 GMT -6

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Post by trethe on Sept 22, 2024 6:11:24 GMT -6

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next
several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the
system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Last Edit: Sept 22, 2024 6:13:52 GMT -6 by trethe

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Post by Math Professor on Sept 21, 2024 19:56:42 GMT -6

Post by marshwarden on Sept 21, 2024 20:28:46 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 21, 2024 22:19:23 GMT -6

Post by Math Professor on Sept 21, 2024 22:54:19 GMT -6

Post by Math Professor on Sept 21, 2024 22:57:31 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 22, 2024 2:16:22 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Sept 22, 2024 3:14:30 GMT -6

Post by lsuhurricane on Sept 22, 2024 4:10:53 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 22, 2024 4:17:59 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 22, 2024 4:54:28 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 22, 2024 5:00:18 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 22, 2024 5:22:10 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 22, 2024 5:46:22 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 22, 2024 6:06:07 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 22, 2024 6:11:24 GMT -6

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