Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 13, 2007 6:24:38 GMT -6
658 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ALL THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE A STRONG POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THE STORMS
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO CONFIRMED THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE RISK OF A STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE EACH
DAY. LESS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WORK WEEK.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY. PLEASE NOTIFY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OF ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
From the Disco....
".CONVECTIVE...
RAN THE RICKS INDEX/PRECIPITATION CALCULATOR ON THE GFS MODEL
SOUNDING OVER NEW ORLEANS VALID 18Z TODAY. THE GFS SOUNDING IS
SIMILAR TO THE NAM SOUNDING WITH ROS OUTPUT USING THE TECHNIQUE MATH
VERY CLOSE TO GFS MANUAL RUN. USING A RANGE OF 344-352K FROM A
SURFACE LIFT WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 89F AND DEWPOINT 71F YIELDS A
A 53 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...PCPN 4.95
INCHES...POTENTIAL PCPN 8.28 INCHES FOR A TEMP BELOW 80F. RICKS
INDEX 126 GIVES A 16 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DOWNBURSTS OF 46KT
/41-51KT/...PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL WITH A CORRESPONDING VIL OF 70
KG/M2. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT OF F0 INTENSITY AND WATERSPOUTS.
ARKANSAS VIL OF THE DAY 63...HAIL-VIL PENNY AT 74 KG/M2. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER PLACES A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
SEVERE FOR TODAY AND IS WARRANTED BASED ON OUTPUT. THESE VALUES WILL
BE BASIS IN MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TECHNIQUE PERFORMANCE
THIS PAST WEEK HAS OUTPERFORMED THE CONVENTIONAL MODELS ON POPS AND
VERIFYING DAILY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WHEN INDICATED."