It's like Harpman said, a center needs to form first. Zack posted this on page 4 and hopefully this will help you: "Difference between the two is where the center consolidates over the NW Caribbean. GFS is west, EURO more east. That is a tough call as far as who is right when you are in the organization stages."
When are we estimating that formation would happen?
Post by weatherboyy on Oct 3, 2017 17:24:16 GMT -6
up to 50/70%: nhc 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image
Post by huskiesdelabasin on Oct 3, 2017 17:47:48 GMT -6
your talking five six days out. seems like when i start watching they days sometimes a couple weeks out. gfs goes east euro goes west the crazy uncle goes crazy. then a couple days later gfs goes west euro goes east uncle crazy still crazy but following the gfs or the euro with its own twist. so i wonder how this plays out from just a few days. are they going come to a faster agreement or drive every one crazy
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I'm hoping for a breeze to push the already high water outta here this weekend, not the opposite. I got water almost covering my back yard today, and part of my driveway in the back is already covered with water. If all of this water does not get a chance to leave (and it might not) we are going to see quite a bit of coastal flooding down on the bayou.
I agree ... im on the coast of Terrebonne and its staying high with those winds !