March 3rd & 4th Severe Weather Discussion

Uh huh.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
835 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCLUDING TORNADOES...

.DISCUSSION...THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
LOOK VERY OMINOUS! NEW 00Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO THE PREV RUNS ON TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. IF ANY
THING...IT IS A TAD STRONGER AS THE SFC LOW IS DEEPER...THUS MAKING
THE LLJ A TAD STRONGER. I`M NOT SURPRISED THE SFC LOW IS A BIT
DEEPER AND FULLY EXPECT THE 00Z GFS TO FOLLOW SUIT. THIS IS TOO MUCH
OF A POWER HOUSE SYSTEM TO KEEP PRESSURE >1006-1009MB. I CAN EVEN
SEE PRESSURE GET LOWER THAN WHAT THE NAM/EURO ARE ADVERTISING WITH
VALUES CLOSER TO 1000MB ACROSS THE CWA.

I`M BECOMING VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE 21-00Z WINDOW AS THE NAM/GFS
ALL INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. YOU CAN VISUALIZE THINGS BETTER
WITH THE NAM B/C OF THE 21Z TIME STEP. THE MAIN THING IS THEY BOTH
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN SQUALL
LINE/FRONT AND MAY ACTUALLY BECOME A LARGE FAMILY OF SUPERCELLS THAT
RAPIDLY TRACK NE INTO/ACROSS THE CWA. I DID A LOCAL SVR WX CHECKLIST
FOR MLU AT 21 USING GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GOT WHAT AMOUNTS TO THE
HIGHEST RANKING (EXTREME) WHICH IS RARE TO ACHIEVE (FEB 5 2008 ALSO
HIT IT) WHICH HISTORICALLY SUPPORTS A SIG RISK OF A HIGH END EVENT
WITH SIG TYPE TORNADOES. WHAT ALSO GETS ME CONCERNED IS WHERE THE
STORMS INITIATE...SW TO CENTRAL LA. THEY THEN WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ALMOST NNE INTO OUR W/SW CWA. THIS GIVES ANY SUPERCELL TIME TO
MATURE AND BECOME LONG LIVED. THOSE ARE THE WORST AS FEB 5 HAS
SHOWN. I CAN REALLY SEE A CORRIDOR ALONG THE TRACE AND ABOUT 50
MILES EITHER SIDE OF THAT BEING EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SIG
TORNADOES BETWEEN 4-9 PM. MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HISTORIC
TYPE SVR WX DAY AND ALL NEED TO BE WX CONSCIOUS.