Post by futuremet on Apr 2, 2008 5:52:29 GMT -6
SPC AC 030529
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT THU APR 03 2008
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX EWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN CA...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE INTO A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE OH/TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH AND STRETCH FROM DELMARVA SWWD INTO SRN AL BY 12Z SATURDAY.
...ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NEWD INTO KY...ALONG WRN EDGE OF 40-50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK FROM CENTRAL AR NEWD INTO
KY DUE TO MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR...
THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO
SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM SRN AR SWWD
ACROSS ERN/CENTRAL TX. THE EXPECTED LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS
SHOULD SUSTAIN MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH 1KM SRH
BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2 MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
THE LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH...SPREADS FROM ERN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT AND DIURNAL HEATING...AIDING FURTHER
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD INTENSIFY SQUALL LINE WITH
EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO...MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SWLY
WINDS PARALLEL TO THE THUNDERSTORM LINE SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
...CAROLINAS...
UPPER SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
LATE FRIDAY...PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER... SINCE
STRONGER MASS CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBS ARE FORECAST ATTM.
..IMY.. 04/03/2008
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