Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1

What surprises me about Bertha is that it has not gotten any weaker being that she is near 77 deg SS temps, it just shows to tell the potential she had if she would had been over much warmer waters. She is surely moving fast, as of a few minutes ago I estimate her reaching the 37W deg long already.
Yeah Zack, that's a strong ridge that some models are indicating near Bermuda to be in place in 3 days, just like the ECM has been indicating for the last couple of days, when it approaches the area near or just north of the Leeward islands, the interesting part is that the ECM keeps the ridge in place near Bermuda even though a trough approaches the US NE Coast. If she stays weak enough she could surely keep on moving straight west past the Leeward Islands and not feel a weakness in the US NE coast.
The 06z gfs is crazy, it turns Bertha right into the 594 ridge.
Both the GFS and Euro build a large ridge across the gulfcoast and SE US beyond day 5, the GFS even builds a much bigger 594mb ridge, yeah right.

11 a.m. advisory indicates that the models are now trending more northward towards the end of the forecast period; isn't this inconsistent with the ridge that is forecast to build in during the next 3 days or so? Or do the models expect the ridge to break down?

Thanks, Zack!

All of the models are totally screwing up the short term forecast. Most of them indicate a WNW motion beginning ASAP when she's been moving due west for hours. The 11AM NHC package had it at 16.6N whereas at 1PM the position estimate was 16.5N . Any trends like this that continue for an extended amount of time become huge when it may just barely get picked up by the trough as it is.

HPC "TS BERTHA FORECAST TO BECOME HURRICANE MAY APPROACH THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTHEAST SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING. SEE
NHC DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES."

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

I was fairly certain Bertha was going to form but had no access to anything since last weekend. I'm totally behind on this one. That's an interesting note by the HPC.