Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1

SKYSUMMIT
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 10:29:15 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 1, 2008 10:29:15 GMT -6

Nearing 100 mph in 96 hours according to this run....

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1305 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080701 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080701 1200 080702 0000 080702 1200 080703 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 16.6W 10.8N 18.7W 10.8N 21.0W 11.3N 23.2W
BAMD 10.8N 16.6W 11.0N 18.9W 11.2N 21.1W 11.7N 23.3W
BAMM 10.8N 16.6W 10.9N 19.0W 10.8N 21.4W 11.1N 23.6W
LBAR 10.8N 16.6W 10.9N 19.4W 11.0N 22.5W 11.4N 25.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080703 1200 080704 1200 080705 1200 080706 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 25.6W 12.5N 30.4W 15.9N 35.2W 20.8N 40.6W
BAMD 12.3N 25.6W 13.8N 29.9W 17.2N 34.8W 21.2N 39.9W
BAMM 11.4N 25.8W 12.6N 30.0W 16.6N 34.7W 21.4N 40.3W
LBAR 11.7N 29.2W 12.1N 36.0W 12.2N 42.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 60KTS 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS
DSHP 60KTS 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 16.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 10.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Last Edit: Jul 1, 2008 10:29:34 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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simeon9benjamin
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 11:18:50 GMT -6

Post by simeon9benjamin on Jul 1, 2008 11:18:50 GMT -6

I think the models are showing this storm becoming to strong to fast. And I think a more west track will happen. The models are acting like it is August and not early July. Tropical strom yes but hurricane may take a little time. I think we will start to see the modles bend more south and west as the system gets better organized.

Last Edit: Jul 1, 2008 11:38:44 GMT -6 by simeon9benjamin

Nolasaints GCWX Supporter Posts: 173	Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 11:26:36 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Nolasaints on Jul 1, 2008 11:26:36 GMT -6 Models.

Zack Fradella
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 12:52:51 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Jul 1, 2008 12:52:51 GMT -6

Jul 1, 2008 11:18:50 GMT -6 simeon9benjamin said:

I think the models are showing this storm becoming to strong to fast. And I think a more west track will happen. The models are acting like it is August and not early July. Tropical strom yes but hurricane may take a little time. I think we will start to see the modles bend more south and west as the system gets better organized.

A more northerly track is in response to the stronger storm that the models are forecasting. If this does stay weak, then we will definitely have a more westward track as the storm will stay embedded in the westerlies.

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Mike Naso
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 12:54:35 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Jul 1, 2008 12:54:35 GMT -6

Jul 1, 2008 12:52:51 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Jul 1, 2008 11:18:50 GMT -6 simeon9benjamin said:

I think the models are showing this storm becoming to strong to fast. And I think a more west track will happen. The models are acting like it is August and not early July. Tropical strom yes but hurricane may take a little time. I think we will start to see the modles bend more south and west as the system gets better organized.

A more northerly track is in response to the stronger storm that the models are forecasting. If this does stay weak, then we will definitely have a more westward track as the storm will stay embedded in the westerlies.

Yes...and the longer range models show a rebuilding ridge in 7-9 days...which would force the system back west towards the area near the Bahamas or Bermuda.

Zack Fradella
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 13:00:00 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Jul 1, 2008 13:00:00 GMT -6

Rarely do you see storms rapidly develop in the open Atlantic. The waters are cooler compared to the Caribbean and Gulf; therefore, there is less heat content. Plus, the close proximity to the equator sometimes wrecks havoc with storms' circulations.

On satellite this is a beauty and it will most likely become a storm by Friday. However, it is a LONG way away from any land so no need to get ahead of ourselves and start thinking about a threat to the US.

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Jason Moreland
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 13:30:51 GMT -6

Post by Jason Moreland on Jul 1, 2008 13:30:51 GMT -6

Jul 1, 2008 12:54:35 GMT -6 Mike Naso said:

Jul 1, 2008 12:52:51 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

A more northerly track is in response to the stronger storm that the models are forecasting. If this does stay weak, then we will definitely have a more westward track as the storm will stay embedded in the westerlies.

Yes...and the longer range models show a rebuilding ridge in 7-9 days...which would force the system back west towards the area near the Bahamas or Bermuda.

yep. The 12z UK shows this possibility pretty well. If it misses the 30-40W trough it'll make it to 65W pretty easy.

- Jason Moreland
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South Alabama Meteorology Student

ndg
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 13:37:09 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 1, 2008 13:37:09 GMT -6

I am dumping both 12z GFS and Euro, they both keep the storm too strong after passing the CV islands to the south, any gain in latitude after passing the CV islands will certainly put 92L is much cooler waters and stable air, and should weaken enough to be carried westward once again by the easterlies. I am still thinking that it will be Bertha as soon as tomorrow, convection is increasing nicely on the eastern half, is grabbing some of the deep moisture to its south, SAL is not getting any closer to it for now.

Last Edit: Jul 1, 2008 13:39:07 GMT -6 by ndg

whitelighten
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 17:28:43 GMT -6

Post by whitelighten on Jul 1, 2008 17:28:43 GMT -6

I hate to say this for anyone that wants a storm or wants much needed rain, but I am afraid this will be a fish. You may think these models don't know what they are doing, but they have been in fairly good agreement among its future path which is to the W and then off towards the NW for several runs now. And looking over a few more things this really all makes since. I was looking over the shear forecast in the future and the lower shear shifts westward with the system itself, this would keep it in a favorable environment in its westward track only strengthening it. It would have to lose that shear to stay weak and track more westward, but that does not appear to happen, therefore strengthening this system and tracking it more WNW or NW. Not only that, but models are in fairly good agreement that there will be an eastern trough that will kill the ridge over Bermuda that will bring all the moisture in across the SE this upcoming weekend and shifts the central Atlantic high eastward. This would keep the chances of anything going into the GOM at a very slight chance without the Bermuda ridge and a weakening central Atlantic ridge progressing eastward. It's a fishy.

Last Edit: Jul 1, 2008 17:29:12 GMT -6 by whitelighten

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T-man GCWX Supporter still watching the weather! Posts: 4,707	Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 18:31:05 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by T-man on Jul 1, 2008 18:31:05 GMT -6 If it strengthens fairly quickly, it will curve. If it does not, it will most likely travel in a more westerly direction. At any rate, we will see in a few days.

tracker1 Tropical Low Posts: 28	Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 21:27:33 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tracker1 on Jul 1, 2008 21:27:33 GMT -6 92L appears to be becoming better organized at this time. I'm not willing to dismiss this system as a fish just yet. Time will tell. www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-rb.html

ndg
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 21:50:12 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 1, 2008 21:50:12 GMT -6

Jul 1, 2008 17:28:43 GMT -6 whitelighten said:

I hate to say this for anyone that wants a storm or wants much needed rain, but I am afraid this will be a fish. You may think these models don't know what they are doing, but they have been in fairly good agreement among its future path which is to the W and then off towards the NW for several runs now. And looking over a few more things this really all makes since. I was looking over the shear forecast in the future and the lower shear shifts westward with the system itself, this would keep it in a favorable environment in its westward track only strengthening it. It would have to lose that shear to stay weak and track more westward, but that does not appear to happen, therefore strengthening this system and tracking it more WNW or NW. Not only that, but models are in fairly good agreement that there will be an eastern trough that will kill the ridge over Bermuda that will bring all the moisture in across the SE this upcoming weekend and shifts the central Atlantic high eastward. This would keep the chances of anything going into the GOM at a very slight chance without the Bermuda ridge and a weakening central Atlantic ridge progressing eastward. It's a fishy.

No, the shear will not kill it, but the cooler waters west of CV islands could definitely weaken it, way too early for this system to stay strong once it would start gaining some latitude in a few days, thus it should bend back to the west, getting carried by the strong easterlies.
My advice is to not write down on stone steering pattern set ups 7 days from now, yet alone 10-14 days from now, this is where models do their worst. Climatologic chances of a system this far east making it to the GOM are very low by not even looking at steering patterns, but the US east coast have a higher chance, by no means we can say that they are out of the woods.

simeon9benjamin Category 3 Posts: 654	Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 1, 2008 23:43:34 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by simeon9benjamin on Jul 1, 2008 23:43:34 GMT -6 This system is getting better organized and we could have a TD by later today or Thursday for sure.
	Last Edit: Jul 2, 2008 5:53:05 GMT -6 by simeon9benjamin

simeon9benjamin Category 3 Posts: 654	Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 2, 2008 5:51:45 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by simeon9benjamin on Jul 2, 2008 5:51:45 GMT -6 The Models are still in love with all this north west turn junk still not in agreement with it .
	Last Edit: Jul 2, 2008 5:55:22 GMT -6 by simeon9benjamin

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1 Jul 2, 2008 7:24:13 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2008 7:24:13 GMT -6 The UKMET and Canadian now agree with each other on a westward turn. They must be seeing the ridge building in later. I haven't had a chance to look at all the details yet.
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Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Thread #1

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 1, 2008 10:29:15 GMT -6

Post by simeon9benjamin on Jul 1, 2008 11:18:50 GMT -6

Post by Nolasaints on Jul 1, 2008 11:26:36 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Jul 1, 2008 12:52:51 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Jul 1, 2008 12:54:35 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Jul 1, 2008 13:00:00 GMT -6

Post by Jason Moreland on Jul 1, 2008 13:30:51 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 1, 2008 13:37:09 GMT -6

Post by whitelighten on Jul 1, 2008 17:28:43 GMT -6

Post by T-man on Jul 1, 2008 18:31:05 GMT -6

Post by tracker1 on Jul 1, 2008 21:27:33 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 1, 2008 21:50:12 GMT -6

Post by simeon9benjamin on Jul 1, 2008 23:43:34 GMT -6

Post by simeon9benjamin on Jul 2, 2008 5:51:45 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2008 7:24:13 GMT -6

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