INVEST 94L Discussion Thread #3

Oh yeah, outflow is expanding in all quadrants...

The more I look at it, the more I'm leaning toward the GFDL and not the globals with the southern track. The globals continue to initialize on what was believed to be a broad low pressure area, and that has pretty much dissipated as recon has proven.

Something HAS to be happening further north...at least a MLC. Maybe not today, nor tonight....maybe not even tomorrow, but once it gets into the NW Caribbean, under nice upper level conditions and over warmer waters, I think we could then begin to see development in between Jamaica and the west tip of Cuba.

the wait continues!

****Didn't see hurricaner's post above....HE'S CORRECT

Here's two water vapor comparisons. The first one is this morning when we were "thinking" we had a developing system....HAD to be at least a TD, right?!?!?

Now look at the second one...it's current. Look at how much the outflow improved in the past few hours. Also, there seems to be a hint of banding beginning to take place with the small convective bursts. Each yellow area is a convective burst and the arrow points toward the direction in which...not the way the burst is moving, but the direction it's building toward.

Finally, there's a very nice convective burst taking place on where many believe the center to be around. This is where I believe at least an MLC to be located. If that burst can continue for the next few hours, it's possible that a circulation could rotate back down to the surface, and therefore form further north than where the models are initializing.

THIS MORNING:


CURRENT:

I agree Sky, definitely banding going on... That's what I was hinting at this morning. We're not looking at convection developing due to outflows propagating - there is definitely a higher degree of convergence going on. All of the convection is building towards the center.

Sky the other thing to note from those two pictures is the outflow beginning to move out to the NW of the center in the early morning shot the NW side of the system is kind of flat with little to no cirrus. In the second shot the NW side is much more rounded and there is some cirrus moving out from the center.