Hurricane Ike Discussion Thread #4

SUSTAINED WINDS... No we won't see continuous 40mph winds but 20-30mph sustained with gusts to 50mph are probable. That could be on the low side if this makes landfall in Louisiana, but should be right on if the storm hits East Texas.

Amen Goodlife, we need to see where he is going and what the steering is , once he gets into the gulf, then it should be more apparent. I am no pro, but this much I know from listening to all you pro guys on here. And pro gals.

Here is Jeff Masters of Weatherunderground Sunday P.M. update:

Large and dangerous hurricane forecast in the NW Gulf of Mexico the end of this week.

State of Texas began their 120 hour count down for impact of a major hurricane on the TX coast today at 1100am.

H-72: 1100am Tuesday
H-36: 1100pm Wednesday
H-0: 1100am Friday

Full activation of the State Operations Center at 800am Monday.

Large scale evacuations along the entire TX coast and full scale contra-flow operations will be possible this week given the current NHC forecast track.

TX residents need to review their hurricane preparation plans and be fully ready to enact these plans this week.

Residents in coastal storm surge evacuation zones need to review evacuation routes and be fully ready to leave this week if ordered to do so.

Ike Update:

Powerful hurricane bearing down on eastern Cuba. Recon. suggest double wind maximum suggesting Ike is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. There is not enough time for Ike to complete this cycle before is crosses the Cuban coast.

Track:

Nearly all global models except for the HWRF suggest the NW Gulf of Mexico will now be threatened by Ike. There is just not enough of a weakness... to turn the hurricane to our east...and it will round the southern side of the high building over the SC states and aim at the NW Gulf of Mexico. The guidance is fairly well clustered when the HWRF is tossed out and it is now fully expected that Ike will not be captured by the US E coast trough and will be a problem for TX and LA.

Intensity:

It appears we will be facing a major hurricane a some point in the Gulf of Mexico. The intensity is more uncertain than the track given the interaction with Cuba and what shape the inner core will be in once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC is forecasting Ike to gradually rebuild its inner core and regain major hurricane status in the central Gulf of Mexico. Past experience has shown that once an inner core is destroyed it does take a while for it to rebuild...we shall see.

Also of note...Ike will become a very large hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico likely expanding in size to nearly the entire Gulf as the interaction with Cuba broadens the wind field.

I don't think that's from Jeff Masters.

The difference between the 12z and the 18z is the 18z extends that trough further down into the gulf which pulls Ike north. That's definitely something to watch for on Tuesday.

don't let your gaurd down it is way to early to do that! models will continue to shift back and forth

www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Ike looks to be finally approaching the Cuban coast.