Post by tigergirl on Sept 8, 2008 14:42:45 GMT -6
From this afternoon's nws diso:
DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE. THE SHORT TERM
REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES.
THE LONG TERM IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED OWING TO THE FACT THAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD CONCERNING THE
TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BYPASS IKE
WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALLOWING A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN FORCE IKE
ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT MODELS AS WELL AS FROM RUN TO RUN FOR INDIVIDUAL
MODELS. WITH THAT SAID...TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE SIGNIFICANT
ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AND IT IS SIMPLY TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION WILL BE.REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT POINT OF LANDFALL...THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST MODELS BRING IKE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR AT LEAST
FRINGE EFFECTS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION TO
HIGHER POPS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IKE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS AND CLOUD COVER
TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
OBVIOUSLY SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE COULD MEAN
LARGE CHANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AND FUTURE PACKAGES WILL NEED
TO BE REFINED TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST.
DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE. THE SHORT TERM
REMAINS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD SEE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES.
THE LONG TERM IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED OWING TO THE FACT THAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD CONCERNING THE
TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BYPASS IKE
WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALLOWING A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN FORCE IKE
ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT MODELS AS WELL AS FROM RUN TO RUN FOR INDIVIDUAL
MODELS. WITH THAT SAID...TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE SIGNIFICANT
ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AND IT IS SIMPLY TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION WILL BE.REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT POINT OF LANDFALL...THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST MODELS BRING IKE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR AT LEAST
FRINGE EFFECTS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION TO
HIGHER POPS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IKE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS AND CLOUD COVER
TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
OBVIOUSLY SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE COULD MEAN
LARGE CHANGES IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AND FUTURE PACKAGES WILL NEED
TO BE REFINED TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST.
