Daily Weather Discussions #2:

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tamugmidn
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Posts: 1,129

Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 9, 2009 22:07:47 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 9, 2009 22:07:47 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE MOIST AT THE LOWER LAYERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. COLD FRONT AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES EVENING HOURS... AND SHOULD MOVE
GRADUALLY ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE STRONG BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH VERY MOIST AND
RELATIVELY WARMER LAYER ON TOP OF COLD SHALLOW AIR MASS. A SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH MONDAY. MODELS HOWEVER INDICATE
THAT IT SHOULD START DRYING OVER REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 3 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHILE 1/2 INCH TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. TIME CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE STRONG LIFT AT AND JUST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATE WEDNESDAY ...AND A PRONOUNCED LIFT WITH PWS INCREASING TO
1.45 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING (IF GFS IS CORRECT). TEMPERATURES DROP
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 40S WED NIGHT THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS AND SHOULD
BRING RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 37

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS RELAXED LAST NIGHT AND JUST THIS LAST HOUR (17Z-18Z) HAVE
BEGUN TO COME BACK UP AND BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE 10-15 TO NEAR
15 KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE UTCW. THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THESE SPEEDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN RELAX SLIGHTLY PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH THE FROPA. WIND WAVES FROM
THE NE-NNE AND THE SWELLS COMING IN FROM THE SE SHOULD LEAD TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS ALL VFR WITH SCT CU 3500-5500. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15G18-27KT
SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS RELAX A LITTLE TONIGHT AND
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS 800-1500FT...NOT MUCH EXPECTATION OF
FOG. PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL 4-6SM FOG NEAR GLS. MVFR/IFR CIGS TONIGHT
05-14Z...BECOMING MVFR WITH HEATING AFTER 14Z.

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tamugmidn
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Posts: 1,129

Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 9, 2009 22:10:14 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 9, 2009 22:10:14 GMT -6

HGX is still cutting highs for Thursday, now down to 53, with upper 40s for highs as close as College Station and Huntsville.

Overnight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night: Isolated sprinkles before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 53.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 51.

Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 59.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 49.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

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tamugmidn
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Posts: 1,129

Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 10, 2009 5:57:26 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 5:57:26 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
540 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SE TX TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY MIXING TO A SCATTERED CU LAYER BY 18Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KLBX/KGLS WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TIME TO TIME THROUGH LATE MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS AREAWIDE 16-23Z. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO DIMINISH. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LIFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND
00Z AT KGLS AND 04-08Z OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. 35

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL AFFECT SE TX OVER THE LAST HALF OF
THIS WEEK AND BRING WELCOME RAINFALL. WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A DENSE CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AFFECT THE AREA OVER
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

THOUGHT THAT THE MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE WERE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR
OFF THE COAST THE FRONT WOULD PROGRESS AND THE NATURE OF THE
COASTAL TROUGH AND ANY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS IN THE SHORT TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF IN
THE MID AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

AT LEAST LIKELY POPS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THESE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD TO
ONE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE STATE WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS AFFECTING SE TX. REALLY
FELT THAT THE POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL BUT DECIDED TO WAIT FOR THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE COMMITTING. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
OCCUR ON AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE TX EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HELP TO PUSH OUT THE CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING RAIN AREAS
ON MONDAY.

40

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY TOUCH 6 FT FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS...SO WILL POST CAUTION FLAGS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE
DIMINISHING WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER
THE BAYS TONIGHT/WED MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY DENSE
FOG OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AS
FRONT APPROACHES. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WED
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC
FOR THE WATERS THIS PERIOD. FRONT WILL STALL AND OSCILLATE BACK TO
THE NORTH THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS PERIOD OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOW DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE WATERS SAT
MORNING...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

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tamugmidn
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Posts: 1,129

Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 10, 2009 5:57:55 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 5:57:55 GMT -6

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 48. Northeast wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 53. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 46.

Friday: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 54.

Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

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tamugmidn
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Posts: 1,129

Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 10, 2009 13:51:18 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 13:51:18 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1028 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOIST LAYER BELOW 5500 KFT OVER REGION. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RUNNING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER COASTAL ZONES
AND ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES LOWER FARTHER INLAND. MID 60S SST INDICATED
OVER NEARSHORE WATERS COUPLED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS HAS PRODUCED PATCHES
OF LIGHT FOG OVER AREAS NEAR THE COAST. ZFPHGX ON TRACK. 37

&&
.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE 20-60NM WATERS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY. LONG SOUTHEASTERLY
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN 3-5 FOOT SWELLS WELL INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS MAY BACK TO THE ESE-SE WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY POSE A FOG
THREAT WITH THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS FOR
GALVESTON BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN 1600-2500FT DECK AND 3000-5000FT TO TOP IT OFF. EXPECTING
THE LOWER DECK TO BE PRIMARILY A SCATTERED DECK THIS MORNING WITH
THE STRONG CAP ALOFT AND RICH MOISTURE PRESENT TO PRODUCE A BKN DECK
FOR IAH-NORTHWARD AT 4000-5000FT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP PRETTY
QUICKLY 1530-17Z AS HEATING GETS UNDERWAY AND WINDS ALOFT START
MIXING DOWN...GETTING GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ALREADY AND THESE SHOULD
PEAK AT 25-27KT 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CIGS RETURN QUICKLY
TONIGHT AND BY 06Z SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SETX TERMINALS.
FOG ALONG THE COAST A DECENT BET AS WELL. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO CLL AROUND 14-15Z WED. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
UNTIL AFTER 15Z WED SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT. IAH AFTER 18Z WED AM NOT OPTIMISTIC FOR CIGS
GETTING OUT OF IFR AND WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SHRA/TSRA AS WELL
AS NARROW SLIVER OF 500 CAPE/LI -2 AND MODEL PRECIP ALL POINT TO
MESSY CONDITIONS. NAM SLOWS THE FRONT DRAMATICALLY IN VCNTY OF IAH
AND WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL OVER GLS BAY AND INTO HARRIS COUNTY MAY
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR IAH/HOU.

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tamugmidn
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Posts: 1,129

Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 10, 2009 13:51:50 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 13:51:50 GMT -6

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast.

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 48. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 53. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 46.

Friday: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 54.

Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Sunday: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

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tamugmidn
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Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 10, 2009 17:43:31 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 17:43:31 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
256 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWFA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...REACHING THE MID SECTIONS EARLY TO LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH
OVER SW CONUS WILL BE EJECTING IMPULSES IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR REGION ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. IT WILL BE QUITE MOIST ON TOP OF SHALLOW COLD AIR USHERED
BY THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BECOME UNSEASONABLY COOL BEGINNING
WED NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WE CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE STRONGER TO THE NORTH AND THEREFORE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHER OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THIS EVENT. SEE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOHGX). COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS MID SECTIONS OF CONUS WILL PUSH COLD FRONT AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE COASTAL TROUGH FARTHER OUT TO THE OFF SHORE WATERS
LATE SATURDAY. TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE GOOD RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY (WITH HELP OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHING OUR REGION). ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY
PUSH ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF CONUS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE EARLY SUNDAY BUT MAY RECOVER
ENOUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR PRECIP CHANCES WHEN NEXT UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. PRIOR GFS MODEL RUNS DID NOT INDICATE POPS
FOR END OF WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS WOULD INDICATE.

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tamugmidn
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Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 10, 2009 23:36:36 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 23:36:36 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
843 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND DON`T SEE ANYTHING I COULD IMPROVE
ON...SO NO UPDATE NEEDED TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT NOW ALONG THE RED RIVER SHOULD BE ON THE NRN FRINGES OF
THE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE...THE HWY 59 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVNG
WED...THEN STRADDLE THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL PUSHING
OFFSHORE LATE. POPS/QPF WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DIFFICULT FCST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THOUGH MOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL...BEST COVERAGE/AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN ZONES
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN (HOPEFULLY) FOCUSING FURTHER SWD
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

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tamugmidn
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Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 10, 2009 23:37:04 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 23:37:04 GMT -6

Overnight: Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 48. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 52. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 45. North wind around 10 mph.

Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 54.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 47.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 70.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

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slapshot71 Tropical Low Posts: 1	Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 11, 2009 4:01:50 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by slapshot71 on Mar 11, 2009 4:01:50 GMT -6 We are finally getting much needed rain here!! ;D Rainfall rates near 1.50 an hour, but we need a lot more!

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 11, 2009 6:41:28 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 11, 2009 6:41:28 GMT -6 Mar 11, 2009 4:01:50 GMT -6 slapshot71 said: We are finally getting much needed rain here!! ;D Rainfall rates near 1.50 an hour, but we need a lot more! That's great! Hopefully you can share some of it here too.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

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Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 11, 2009 11:03:06 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 11, 2009 11:03:06 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009

.AVIATION...
BIG CHANGES IN STORE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES SE TX. THE FRONT
WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING KCLL WILL PUSH ONLY VERY SLOWLY SOUTH...NOT
REACHING HOUSTON AREA TERMINALS UNTIL MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN AND OFF THE
COAST EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-15 KTS UPON
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR LEVEL. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR LEVEL THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN -RA EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING FROPA.
HOWEVER...HAVE TEMPOS FOR TSRA WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHEST...GENERALLY THIS MORNING OVER KCLL/KUTS AND
THIS AFTN OVER HOUSTON AREA TERMINALS. 35

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RAINY STRETCH IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF SE TX THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER MUCH
DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER.

THE MODELS LOOKED VERY SIMILAR ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WAS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT TOO FAR OFF THE COAST AS THE NAM OR
GFS. ALL THREE KEEP THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE OVER AN AREA BASICALLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
THROUGH SATURDAY. FELT THAT THE ECMWF WAS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE
POP FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE BEHIND.

TACKLING THE TEMPERATURE PROBLEM FIRST...THE COLD FRONT WAS
PUSHING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND WILL MOVING INTO THE CLL AND
CROCKETT AREAS BY AROUND 12Z. THE FRONT WAS CLOSE TO THE NAM12
AND WENT WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THIS
GIVES BASICALLY FALLING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND MIDDAY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND
COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BASICALLY STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S LOOK PROBABLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO CORRIGAN
LINE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES...ALTHOUGH 1
INCH OR LESS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

40

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER ABOUT A WEEK OF ONSHORE WINDS CHANGES ARE IN STORE BEGINNING
TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE EAST AS FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
CROSS THE BAYS EARLY EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS BY
12Z THURSDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
PERIODICALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION SUNDAY AS SFC
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS ON MONDAY.

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tamugmidn
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Posts: 1,129

Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 11, 2009 11:04:01 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 11, 2009 11:04:01 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
918 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING
WITH A QUICK 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT IS SHOWING UP WELL ON KHGX RADAR...AND AT 1415Z IS ROUGHLY FROM
THE NACOGDOCHES AREA TO JUST WEST OF HUNTSVILLE TO JUST WEST OF BELLVILLE
TO NEAR COLUMBUS. SOME RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THIS
IS COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT GRID PACKAGE. JUST UPDATED THE MORNING
PRODUCTS TO GET AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WHAT
IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE A TRICKY AND MESSY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXCYPRE223

tamugmidn
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,129

Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 11, 2009 11:04:59 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 11, 2009 11:04:59 GMT -6

HGX now calling for highs near 50 on Thursday and mid-upper 40s on Friday:

This Afternoon: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Northeast wind around 15 mph.

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 50. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind around 15 mph.

Friday: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 47. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 41.

Saturday: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.

www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXCYPRE223

Randy - Brandon, MS GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,179	Daily Weather Discussions #2: Mar 11, 2009 11:34:23 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Mar 11, 2009 11:34:23 GMT -6 ^^^Kind of chilly for Houston in March! We're expecting the same type of thing in MS. If the 12z GFS is correct about the next 3-5 days, I should probably start working on my ark.

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northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

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lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

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Daily Weather Discussions #2:

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 9, 2009 22:07:47 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 9, 2009 22:10:14 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 5:57:26 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 5:57:55 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 13:51:18 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 13:51:50 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 17:43:31 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 23:36:36 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 10, 2009 23:37:04 GMT -6

Post by slapshot71 on Mar 11, 2009 4:01:50 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 11, 2009 6:41:28 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 11, 2009 11:03:06 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 11, 2009 11:04:01 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Mar 11, 2009 11:04:59 GMT -6

Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Mar 11, 2009 11:34:23 GMT -6

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