Daily Weather Discussions #2:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
257 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME VERY
WELCOME RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE HAS BEGUN TO WANE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM 12 AND WRF FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THESE TWO MODELS HAVE HANDLED SURFACE
FEATURES BEST YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY. ON TUESDAY...THE WRF
DEVELOPS AN AREA OF SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.
THIS AREA PRECIP WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES NORTH. THE
PRECIP SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST BY TUE 16-17Z. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A SECOND ROUND
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
WRF FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES...LI`S -3 TO
-5 AND CAPE OVER 1000. HELICITY VALUES ALSO PROGGED TO EXCEED 200
AND A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO ERODE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS GO SEVERE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT SO
MUCH IS TIED TO THE CAP ERODING THAT PREFER TO NOT MENTION IN THE
ZFP AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR DURING
THE EVENING BEFORE AN ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE MARKEDLY BUT
ALAS...SO DOES THE CAP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BUILDING CAP OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST CAPPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
THE ENTIRE CWA IS OUTLOOKED BY SPC BUT WILL ONLY MENTION SEVERE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE CAPPING IS WEAKEST.
HELICITY VALUES APPROACH 400 TUESDAY NIGHT AND ABUNDANT WIND ENERGY
COUPLED WITH FAST STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD YIELD SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. VERY HIGH POPS NORTHEAST ZONES TAPERED TO LOW POPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

AIR MASS BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHTS PACIFIC FRONT IS COOLER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER. WITH A W-NW COMPONENT TO THE WIND...AM
EXPECTING VERY LOW RH VALUES. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER DANGERS ESPECIALLY IF THE AREA GETS SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN TUE/TUES NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MAYBE SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
FRONT. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER. THE GFS BLOWS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE
ECMWF HANGS IT UP NEAR THE COAST. STILL NO CONSENSUS SO STAYED
WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS. LOOKING AT PRESSURE RISES
UPSTREAM...FEEL THE ECMWF MAY BE CORRECT WITH HANGING THE FRONT UP
ALONG THE COAST. 43

&&

.MARINE...
LONG SE FETCH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF SENDING LARGE SWELLS
TO THE TX COASTLINE. WILL KEEP THE SCA GOING FOR ALL THE GULF WATERS
EVEN THOUGH NEARSHORE MIGHT BE A BIT MARGINAL TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE EVEN FURTHER LATE TONIGHT...THRU THE DAY TUE...AND
PEAK TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT. WWIII GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING 11 FOOT SEAS IN THE 20-60NM GROUP TUE NIGHT BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THEY END UP EVEN HIGHER...SAY 13-15 FEET...
CONSIDERING THE LONG FETCH OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. COULD SEE
PERIODS OF SEA FOG BETWEEN NOW AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY DENSE CONSIDERING WATER TEMPS HAVE
WARMED UP TO AROUND 64 DEGREES. FRONT AND POSSIBLE ACCOMPANYING BAND
OF SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE WEST-EAST THRU THE REGION (MAT BAY ~3AM &
GLS 6AM). OFFSHORE WINDS REALLY WEAKEN BY WED AFTN AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OVERHEAD SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME EXCELLENT SURFING
CONDITIONS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES THURS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT LATE FRI. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS
INLAND LOCATION BUT EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS NO WIND CRITERIA IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...SO A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEED TO BE ISSUED BY THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT...FOLLOWED BY A RED FLAG WARNING ON WEDNESDAY. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 75 50 75 44 / 10 30 40 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 63 76 57 75 46 / 10 30 30 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 61 70 60 72 54 / 10 20 30 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
812 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GOING GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR LOOP
IMAGERY. ISO SHRAS PERSISTING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVEN-
ING...AND SO WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY REMAINING IN
PLACE THESE WAA-TYPE PCPN SHOULD ALSO STICK AROUND OVER THE NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF INCREAS-
ED PCPN OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE W/SW STILL
STANDS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009/

AVIATION...
MODELS STILL WANTING TO LOWER BKN-OVC DECKS INTO MVFR AND HOLD
THEM THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RECENT TRENDS HAVE BUCKED THIS AS
STRONG LL SOUTHERLIES HAVE AIDED IN SUSTAINING A PREDOMINANT VFR
DECK BELOW A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY. IR SAT IMAGERY REVEALS PLENTY
OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT UP IN SW`ERLIES FROM BAJA.
THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT...WITH LL JET INCREASING TO 40-50
KT RIGHT OFF SURFACE GOING INTO THE LATER PERIOD...SCT-OVC DECKS
WILL REMAIN IN THE NEAR 2-3K FT RANGE WITH AN ONCL MID-LEVEL DECK
AND PERSISTENT CIRRUS OVERCAST.

QUITE THE BLOW AGAIN TOMORROW...HIGHER WINDS RIGHT OFF DECK
EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING...AND A TIGHTER LARGE-
SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TOMORROW PER NEARING FRONT WILL KEEP
SOUTHERLIES UP IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. STREAMER SHOWERS UP AHEAD OF
WED`S CF WILL BEGIN TO BETTER AFFECT MORE HUBS FROM MID-AFTERNOON
ON INTO LATE TUESDAY EVENING...MVFR OVC DECKS WITHIN SHRA. KGLS
VISBIES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE WITH MOISTURE-RICH AIR EQUALING WARMER
SST`S SO HAVE WAVERED MVFR VISBIES THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-110600-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
328 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN TIGHT
RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MILES AN HOUR WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM FOR
AREAS WEST OF A MADISONVILLE TO FREEPORT LINE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL
LINE THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY RISK
AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO HOUSTON TO
GALVESTON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. A
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SQUALL
LINE.

.DAY TWO...WEDNESDAY...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON AND MATAGORDA
COUNTIES...FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT AROUND MID MORNING AND PERSIST BELOW 20 PERCENT UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION
LATER TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC013-021-029-055-091-177-187-209-287-453-491-493-110415-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0005.090211T0333Z-090211T0415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
933 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ATASCOSA COUNTY...
BASTROP COUNTY...
EASTERN BEXAR COUNTY...
CALDWELL COUNTY...
EASTERN COMAL COUNTY...
WESTERN GONZALES COUNTY...
GUADALUPE COUNTY...
EASTERN HAYS COUNTY...
WESTERN LEE COUNTY...
TRAVIS COUNTY...
EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...
WILSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CST.

* AT 924 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF BARTLETT TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ELMENDORF...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GRANGER TO POTEET...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING QUARTER-SIZE HAIL AND WINDS GREATER
THAN 50 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
ZORN...UHLAND...TAYLOR AND NEW BERLIN BY 940 PM CST...
STAPLES...SEGUIN...NIEDERWALD AND MUSTANG RIDGE BY 945 PM CST...
THRALL AND SUTHERLAND SPRINGS BY 950 PM CST...

LAT...LON 3074 9726 3048 9715 3056 9701 3057 9696
3053 9690 3050 9689 3047 9690 3046 9687
2925 9771 2892 9818 2925 9860 3085 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 298DEG 44KT 3076 9745 2906 9851

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC029-031-091-187-209-453-491-110345-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0004.090211T0314Z-090211T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
914 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BEXAR COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN BLANCO COUNTY...
COMAL COUNTY...
WEST CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY...
HAYS COUNTY...
TRAVIS COUNTY...
WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 945 PM CST.

* AT 906 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FLORENCE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LACKLAND AFB...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF SERENADA TO 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CASTROVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
UNIVERSAL CITY...SELMA...LIVE OAK AND KIRBY BY 920 PM CST...
WEST LAKE HILLS...WEIR...TANGLEWOOD FOREST AND SCHERTZ BY 925 PM
CST...
GRANGER AND SAN MARCOS BY 930 PM CST...
NEW BRAUNFELS AND SAN ANTONIO BY 940 PM CST...

LAT...LON 3073 9726 3023 9752 2987 9793 2915 9842
2928 9880 3089 9778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 308DEG 43KT 3082 9768 2923 9862

According to KHOU board, marble to golfball sized hail in San Antonio.

hey.....post these reports in the SVR WX Disco thread. Even though they're for Texas, let's keep all the even discussion together. You're about to go under a SVR T-Storm Watch.