Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2012 20:42:06 GMT -6
And Facebook update from Bryan Norcross:
Bryan Norcross
You could get dizzy with these computer forecast models. There has been a noticeable shift to the west today in the various forecasts. The European (ECMWF) takes the storm to the central Gulf, a decent way away from Florida, while the American (GFS) skims southwest and west-central Florida before jogging west. The GFS would put bad weather over the entire peninsula and high water against the Keys and west coast. And some high water in southeast Florida. BUT... the storm is only slowly and slightly getting stronger, and it is going slower than yesterday. The "center" is a broad area of low pressure with shifting winds... nothing like a tropical system that is about the strengthen. The slower forward motion means it will take longer to get where it's going, and the pattern that steers it when it gets to the Gulf may change... so Texas to Florida pay attention. To get a better handle on things, the NHC is deploying its full arsenal tonight to figure out exactly what's going on in the atmosphere (it's expensive so they can only do it on special occasions), so tomorrow morning we'll have the benefit of that. The odds still favor a giant - in diameter - system in the Gulf, which will affect a large part of the coastline, but exactly where the worst of it will be is not even worth guessing. Odds also favor strengthening... with rapid strengthening to a strong hurricane not out of the question. But the structure doesn't favor that happening quickly, and a weak and disorganized storm is annoyingly difficult to forecast.
Bryan Norcross
You could get dizzy with these computer forecast models. There has been a noticeable shift to the west today in the various forecasts. The European (ECMWF) takes the storm to the central Gulf, a decent way away from Florida, while the American (GFS) skims southwest and west-central Florida before jogging west. The GFS would put bad weather over the entire peninsula and high water against the Keys and west coast. And some high water in southeast Florida. BUT... the storm is only slowly and slightly getting stronger, and it is going slower than yesterday. The "center" is a broad area of low pressure with shifting winds... nothing like a tropical system that is about the strengthen. The slower forward motion means it will take longer to get where it's going, and the pattern that steers it when it gets to the Gulf may change... so Texas to Florida pay attention. To get a better handle on things, the NHC is deploying its full arsenal tonight to figure out exactly what's going on in the atmosphere (it's expensive so they can only do it on special occasions), so tomorrow morning we'll have the benefit of that. The odds still favor a giant - in diameter - system in the Gulf, which will affect a large part of the coastline, but exactly where the worst of it will be is not even worth guessing. Odds also favor strengthening... with rapid strengthening to a strong hurricane not out of the question. But the structure doesn't favor that happening quickly, and a weak and disorganized storm is annoyingly difficult to forecast.
