It would be a bad thing if between the two, the GFS is the left outlier and the Euro is the right outlier, making a track over Nola the difference between the two.
Looks as though Isaac is squeezing out the dry air that's left to its south, it appears to be decreasing. Which will only aide in helping with intensification.
A blend of the two is usually the right course of action! Of course that is right into NOLA.
That's lovely. :/
I wonder time contraflow will start? I heard on the news the dotd was moving some things around for it just in case it was called to go into effect.
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If & When Contraflow goes into effect, it will be 30 hrs prior to Tropical Storm force winds. I believe that decision will be made before lunch time tomorrow.
Post by Zack Fradella on Aug 27, 2012 0:28:13 GMT -6
Honestly we are getting so close to landfall I don't see how you can safely call for a large scale evacuation and realistically plan to get everyone out. I think a voluntary evacuation with an emphasis on those with special needs to be called. Realistically we would have grid-lock for hours if they tried to get everyone out now!
Impressive how that reformation of the LLC happened!, the recon fixed the LLC around 11 PM, two hours later they found 60 miles NW of the the dying LLC, much stronger.
Honestly we are getting so close to landfall I don't see how you can safely call for a large scale evacuation and realistically plan to get everyone out. I think a voluntary evacuation with an emphasis on those with special needs to be called. Realistically we would have grid-lock for hours if they tried to get everyone out now!
They made emphasis tonight that if contraflow is activated tomorrow, it will be a "Compressed Contraflow" meaning a increased pace. Idk all the details but thats what was mentioned.
Some evacuations are taking place of some medical places early tomorrow morning, I'm not sure of the exact ones yet. We have many ambulances meeting on the Westbank at the mall tomorrow morning to start evacuations. Our strike teams have been activated. We should begin evacuations out of the Houma area tomorrow morning as well, such as nursing homes and special needs patients requiring ambulances.
Post by Wyatt Erminger on Aug 27, 2012 0:36:35 GMT -6
I think Scott's 'suspect' area is right on, we'll see an eye pop out soon. When it does it's game on, I believe rapid intensification is very close. Once the lawn mower stops sputtering, rapid deepening will start. As Isaac pulls north of the UL low over the Yucatan, UL conditions will be almost perfect. I really think with the heat content available that we may see at least a CAT 3 at landfall. I remember this very well based on our K climo, it came off the Keys as a mess, but it didn't take long to get going. Once that eye pops out, I think the western solutions are too far west.
Last Edit: Aug 27, 2012 1:00:46 GMT -6 by Wyatt Erminger
![](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204710_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png")
