Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 10, 2013 22:31:24 GMT -6
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/11/13 0429Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 0415Z BELGE
.
LOCATION...FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
.
EVENT...HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH GULF COAST STATES..
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT IR IMAGERY HAS STARTED TO SHOW
AN OVERALL WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS FROM LA INTO GA, BUT THERE IS STILL A
CONCERN FOR HVY RAINFALL AS NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ALONG UPWIND
EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND TRAIN TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL MS WHERE NEW CONVECTION IS SEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG A SFC BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS SE LA AND INTO SRN MS/AL. FOR THE MOST
PART, CONVECTION IS WARM-TOPPED IN NATURE WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS APPROACHING
-50C..BUT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" (200% OF NORMAL) AND WITH A SATURATED
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO REPEAT HVY RAINFALL TODAY, RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT WITH ANY NEW CELLS THAT DEVELOP AND TRAIN THROUGH THE REGION.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0430-0730Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...MOD TO HVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-4 HRS WITH A PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR CONTINUED NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM AND TRAINING CELLS. WITH STRONG UL DIFFLUENCE PRESENT
OVER THE AREA AND A STRONG 850MB JET, CONVECTION AND THEREFORE MOD TO
VERY HVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. LOOKING AT STLT
MANUAL ESTIMATES, RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE AROUND 1.5"/HR BUT WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME CELLS OUTPUT RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR. AS THE
OVERNIGHT HRS PROGRESS, LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN AND TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NE
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH
SRN MS/AL.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 0415Z BELGE
.
LOCATION...FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
.
EVENT...HVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH GULF COAST STATES..
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT IR IMAGERY HAS STARTED TO SHOW
AN OVERALL WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS FROM LA INTO GA, BUT THERE IS STILL A
CONCERN FOR HVY RAINFALL AS NEW CELLS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ALONG UPWIND
EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND TRAIN TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL MS WHERE NEW CONVECTION IS SEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG A SFC BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS SE LA AND INTO SRN MS/AL. FOR THE MOST
PART, CONVECTION IS WARM-TOPPED IN NATURE WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS APPROACHING
-50C..BUT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" (200% OF NORMAL) AND WITH A SATURATED
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO REPEAT HVY RAINFALL TODAY, RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT WITH ANY NEW CELLS THAT DEVELOP AND TRAIN THROUGH THE REGION.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0430-0730Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...MOD TO HVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-4 HRS WITH A PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR CONTINUED NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM AND TRAINING CELLS. WITH STRONG UL DIFFLUENCE PRESENT
OVER THE AREA AND A STRONG 850MB JET, CONVECTION AND THEREFORE MOD TO
VERY HVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. LOOKING AT STLT
MANUAL ESTIMATES, RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE AROUND 1.5"/HR BUT WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME CELLS OUTPUT RATES IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR. AS THE
OVERNIGHT HRS PROGRESS, LLJ SHOULD WEAKEN AND TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NE
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH
SRN MS/AL.
