Post by 99lsfm2 on May 31, 2013 11:55:15 GMT -6
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY TO KINGFISHER...EAST OF A LINE FROM
KINGFISHER TO LAWTON...NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAWTON TO ARDMORE...
TO ADA TO HOLDENVILLE. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA IS IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.
THE SLIGHT RISK IS OUTSIDE THE MODERATE RISK...EAST OF A
MEDFORD TO CLINTON TO ALTUS TO KNOX CITY LINE.
LOCATIONS WEST OF A MEDFORD TO CLINTON TO ALTUS TO KNOX CITY
LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF SOFTBALLS...
TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH...
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING...
TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF A DRYLINE
AND STATIONARY FRONT COMBINATION...BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM TODAY...
SOMEWHERE NEAR A PONCA CITY TO HOBART TO VERNON TEXAS LINE. THESE
STORMS WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND MOST LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE GREATEST IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM FROM DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ALONG
OR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...
WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT...
AND DECREASING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN SOME
AREAS...THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY TO KINGFISHER...EAST OF A LINE FROM
KINGFISHER TO LAWTON...NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAWTON TO ARDMORE...
TO ADA TO HOLDENVILLE. THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA IS IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.
THE SLIGHT RISK IS OUTSIDE THE MODERATE RISK...EAST OF A
MEDFORD TO CLINTON TO ALTUS TO KNOX CITY LINE.
LOCATIONS WEST OF A MEDFORD TO CLINTON TO ALTUS TO KNOX CITY
LINE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF SOFTBALLS...
TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH...
HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING...
TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
FIRST STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF A DRYLINE
AND STATIONARY FRONT COMBINATION...BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM TODAY...
SOMEWHERE NEAR A PONCA CITY TO HOBART TO VERNON TEXAS LINE. THESE
STORMS WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND MOST LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE GREATEST IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM FROM DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINES ALONG
OR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...
WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT...
AND DECREASING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN SOME
AREAS...THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
