Post by Deleted on May 2, 2013 13:41:16 GMT -6
They back off from a big rain event for Friday but still we can expect at least a good rain event for the weekend until next Tuesday. Let's see how this unfolds.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST THU MAY 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL DOMINATE THRU MON.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DEFINITE DRYER TREND SINCE
YESTERDAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HOWEVER WE ARE STILL NOT OUT
OF THE WOODS EITHER. MODELS NOW SHOW PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE FOR
FRI AND THIS IS EVIDENT ON BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SO HAVE TO BACK OFF
FROM THE HIGH POPS FOR TOMORROW. IT APPEARS NOW THAT SAT AND SUN WILL
OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME HEAVY RAINS AS A SHEARLINE
DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. STEERING WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH SO
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FORM OVR THE CORDILLERA AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. BY TUE...MODELS SHOW SIG MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
IN WX CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON WITH THE
RISK OF DAILY AFTERNOON TSTMS ESPECIALLY AT JSJ WHERE STEERING
WINDS ARE FVRBL TO DRIVE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST.
TOMORROW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY INLAND OVR
THE CORDILLERA WITH SLIM CHANCES OF AFFECTING ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT AS NORTHEAST
SWELLS SUBSIDE AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A COL REGION. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING FROM TSTMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 76 88 / 0 10 0 70
STT 75 85 79 84 / 10 10 20 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST THU MAY 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL DOMINATE THRU MON.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A DEFINITE DRYER TREND SINCE
YESTERDAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS HOWEVER WE ARE STILL NOT OUT
OF THE WOODS EITHER. MODELS NOW SHOW PRETTY GOOD SUBSIDENCE FOR
FRI AND THIS IS EVIDENT ON BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SO HAVE TO BACK OFF
FROM THE HIGH POPS FOR TOMORROW. IT APPEARS NOW THAT SAT AND SUN WILL
OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME HEAVY RAINS AS A SHEARLINE
DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. STEERING WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH SO
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FORM OVR THE CORDILLERA AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST. BY TUE...MODELS SHOW SIG MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
IN WX CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON WITH THE
RISK OF DAILY AFTERNOON TSTMS ESPECIALLY AT JSJ WHERE STEERING
WINDS ARE FVRBL TO DRIVE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST.
TOMORROW...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY INLAND OVR
THE CORDILLERA WITH SLIM CHANCES OF AFFECTING ANY OF THE AIRPORTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT AS NORTHEAST
SWELLS SUBSIDE AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER A COL REGION. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING FROM TSTMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 76 88 / 0 10 0 70
STT 75 85 79 84 / 10 10 20 20
