Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #7

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN TX...CNTRL/SRN LA...SRN
MS...SWRN AL...FAR WRN PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242257Z - 250130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO MAY EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO TRACK ESEWD/SEWD INVOF
CONVECTION-AUGMENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ATTENDANT TO PREVIOUSLY
DECAYED MCS/S. A LONGER-TRACK MCV APPEARS TO BE AIDING THE ACTIVITY
OVER CNTRL MS AND WILL CONTINUE BEING STEERED ESEWD TOWARD/ACROSS
SWRN AL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AIR S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY.

MODEST MID-LEVEL WNWLY/NWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FORWARD PROPAGATION OF
THIS PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION TOWARD THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST...AS PARTLY AIDED BY WATER LOADING PROCESSES ACCOMPANYING PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5-2.2 INCHES PER GPS DATA. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH MORE SEMI-DISCRETE
CONVECTION IN JEFFERSON COUNTY MS. THIS IS LIKELY A MANIFESTATION OF
SUBTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PER AREA
VWP DATA. AND...WITH SEASONABLY RICH DEEP MOISTURE...AND LOWERING
LCL/S FOLLOWING DUSK...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAGNITUDE SHOULD LIMIT THE SVR
POTENTIAL SUCH THAT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

Lafourche Parish had posted it, was going to post it but, you'll beat me to it

Weekend discussion from Lake Charles:



.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT WITH SFC LOW
PRES OVER OK TRAVELING EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER A WEAK COOL FRONT
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT (WITH
PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 2 INCHES) WILL COMBINE
WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NRN LA/NE TX THIS EVENING...AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SE INTO CNTL LA AND THE LAKES AREA OF
SE TX OVERNIGHT. SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWS IT SRN
PROGRESSION AND BECOMES STALLED NR THE COAST. HIGHEST (LIKELY)
POPS ARE EXPECTED ACRS S CNTL LA WHERE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPS A BIT...WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTN.

Most of the rain has been on the north shore this morning, with a few rumbles of thunder here in Ponchatoula during the last 20 minutes.

We really could use some rain in the metro area. It's been about a week since we've seen a good rain and the heat the last week has really dried out the ground. So far today, not a drop.