TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread

SKYSUMMIT
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TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 15:04:42 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 12, 2013 15:04:42 GMT -6

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 93.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 93.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 93.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
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CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
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TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 15:06:15 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 12, 2013 15:06:15 GMT -6

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXTREME RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. HOWEVER...A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 1003
MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

ndg
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Posts: 9,974

TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 15:06:47 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 12, 2013 15:06:47 GMT -6

Well, I guess they are going with the trends of continuing to get better organized thus why the upgrade to TD 10, it is expected to sit around the BOC for the next 3-4 days so that people in MX get ready for the potential devastating torrential rains that are going to affect them over the next few days.

SKYSUMMIT
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TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 15:08:47 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 12, 2013 15:08:47 GMT -6

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS
AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE HWRF.

GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN
COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

weather2a Category 2 Posts: 534	TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 15:09:04 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weather2a on Sept 12, 2013 15:09:04 GMT -6 Interesting cone lol

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 15:55:34 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Sept 12, 2013 15:55:34 GMT -6 12Z Euro Ensembles suggesttt N trend continues hmm
	Last Edit: Sept 12, 2013 16:01:02 GMT -6 by weatherboyy weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

weather2a Category 2 Posts: 534	TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 16:04:16 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weather2a on Sept 12, 2013 16:04:16 GMT -6 So far the 18z GFS looks to be tracking it further north

tamugmidn GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,129	TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 16:45:55 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tamugmidn on Sept 12, 2013 16:45:55 GMT -6 Yeah, looking like north of Tampico, 100 miles or so south of the border. I'm not wishing it on anyone, especially if it really strengthens, but we could really use the rain here in Texas.
	www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KTXCYPRE223

Taylor Tropical Low Posts: 28	TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 17:43:01 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Taylor on Sept 12, 2013 17:43:01 GMT -6 They need to go ahead with a downgrade. Shear is all over the place.
	Last Edit: Sept 12, 2013 17:43:43 GMT -6 by Taylor Trained SKYWARN Spotter Spotter Network Certified Meteorology Fundamentals Graduate

DYLAN FEDERICO Meteorologist GCWX Supporter Posts: 17,515	TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 18:03:12 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Sept 12, 2013 18:03:12 GMT -6 Sept 12, 2013 17:43:01 GMT -6 Taylor said: They need to go ahead with a downgrade. Shear is all over the place. What shear?
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WINK Meteorologist

SKYSUMMIT
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TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 20:56:14 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 12, 2013 20:56:14 GMT -6

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION FEATURES A PRIMARY BAND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER THAT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATER...MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED MOST
STRONGLY BY THE GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIVES THE SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A
BIT...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEREFORE
SHOW A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 270/02. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SLOW ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT
TIME. BY 72 HOURS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA...
BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS
STILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LARGER THAN USUAL.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 19.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 21.5N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 24.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

gulfbreeze
Category 3

Posts: 619

TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 21:24:02 GMT -6

Post by gulfbreeze on Sept 12, 2013 21:24:02 GMT -6

Sept 12, 2013 16:45:55 GMT -6 tamugmidn said:

Yeah, looking like north of Tampico, 100 miles or so south of the border. I'm not wishing it on anyone, especially if it really strengthens, but we could really use the rain here in Texas.

Here's hoping that you get some rain - substantial rain- out of this.

Not a professional forecast by any means and should not be viewed as such - just my opinion. Audrey'57, Carla'61 Hilda'64, Betsy'65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Gustav'08, Ike'08, No-Name'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.

hurricaner
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TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 12, 2013 21:49:30 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Sept 12, 2013 21:49:30 GMT -6

With weak steering currents, the SW shear, most of the heavy weather E & N of the center I would not be surprised to see the LLC relocate to the NE somewhat. I still think this is something the TX coast need to keep an eye on.

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SKYSUMMIT
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TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2013 5:58:12 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2013 5:58:12 GMT -6

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 95.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

loogaroo GCWX Supporter Posts: 731	TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2013 8:11:10 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by loogaroo on Sept 13, 2013 8:11:10 GMT -6 We have Ingrid

TROPICAL STORM INGRID Discussion Thread

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 12, 2013 15:04:42 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 12, 2013 15:06:15 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 12, 2013 15:06:47 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 12, 2013 15:08:47 GMT -6

Post by weather2a on Sept 12, 2013 15:09:04 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Sept 12, 2013 15:55:34 GMT -6

Post by weather2a on Sept 12, 2013 16:04:16 GMT -6

Post by tamugmidn on Sept 12, 2013 16:45:55 GMT -6

Post by Taylor on Sept 12, 2013 17:43:01 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Sept 12, 2013 18:03:12 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 12, 2013 20:56:14 GMT -6

Post by gulfbreeze on Sept 12, 2013 21:24:02 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Sept 12, 2013 21:49:30 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2013 5:58:12 GMT -6

Post by loogaroo on Sept 13, 2013 8:11:10 GMT -6

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