Post by thibodauxwx on Sept 10, 2013 12:38:36 GMT -6
Larry Cosgrove's take on this system:
Larry Cosgrove
Here is a very raw or preliminary look at the disturbance taking shape near the Yucatan Peninsula. As of now, moisture and energy are being pulled away from Invest 93L into a TUTT signature over the Bahamas. This shearing mechanism should quit by tomorrow afternoon, at which time the impulse is expected to lurch west/northwest toward the Bay of Campeche.
Initially, with pressures building across the Midwest (another cool intrusion of note headed for the Eastern Seaboard this weekend), I suspect the tropical low will intensify and crawl along the western shoreline of the Bay of Campeche. yes, this feature should become "Ingrid" and has a small chance at reaching Category 1 hurricane status (with the idea the center stays offshore, of course).
I am expecting the disturbance to slowly wend its way northward, coming inland at Matamoras or Brownsville, then coming to a stop for two or three days somewhere in the vicinity of San Antonio (or west of Corpus Christi). This COULD mean a welcome deluge before the weakened low slogs off toward Arkansas and Tennessee by September 18.
Some communities in easternmost Mexico will suffer greatly with this slow moving storm, with as much as 10-15 inches of rainfall possible. There is a fair chance (as I see it, 1 in 10), that similar precipitation totals could visit Texas along and below a San Angelo....Austin....Freeport arc.
Just something to watch; if the slower ECMWF scheme verifies, there will be minimal consequences from the warm-core low outside of South Texas. But this time around, the synoptic setting seems to be favoring the operational GFS idea of a pretty good rain event for the Lone Star State.
Larry Cosgrove
Here is a very raw or preliminary look at the disturbance taking shape near the Yucatan Peninsula. As of now, moisture and energy are being pulled away from Invest 93L into a TUTT signature over the Bahamas. This shearing mechanism should quit by tomorrow afternoon, at which time the impulse is expected to lurch west/northwest toward the Bay of Campeche.
Initially, with pressures building across the Midwest (another cool intrusion of note headed for the Eastern Seaboard this weekend), I suspect the tropical low will intensify and crawl along the western shoreline of the Bay of Campeche. yes, this feature should become "Ingrid" and has a small chance at reaching Category 1 hurricane status (with the idea the center stays offshore, of course).
I am expecting the disturbance to slowly wend its way northward, coming inland at Matamoras or Brownsville, then coming to a stop for two or three days somewhere in the vicinity of San Antonio (or west of Corpus Christi). This COULD mean a welcome deluge before the weakened low slogs off toward Arkansas and Tennessee by September 18.
Some communities in easternmost Mexico will suffer greatly with this slow moving storm, with as much as 10-15 inches of rainfall possible. There is a fair chance (as I see it, 1 in 10), that similar precipitation totals could visit Texas along and below a San Angelo....Austin....Freeport arc.
Just something to watch; if the slower ECMWF scheme verifies, there will be minimal consequences from the warm-core low outside of South Texas. But this time around, the synoptic setting seems to be favoring the operational GFS idea of a pretty good rain event for the Lone Star State.
