Post by 99lsfm2 on Sept 20, 2013 14:49:38 GMT -6
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
346 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO STREAM N ACROSS THE NW GULF
INTO SE TX/C AND S LA TODAY. BROADENING OUT TO THE BIGGER PICTURE
INCLUDES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS C TX NE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCLUDES SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...INCLUDING
THE REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE MANUAL...COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PUT IT TOGETHER...AND
WE HAVE BEGUN THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT OVER THE REGION IN
OVER 4 MONTHS.
THUS FAR...LCH DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 2-4
INCHES ACROSS SE TX/W LA...WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING AMOUNTS OVER
5 INCHES ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND SW CALCASIEU INTO W CAMERON
PARISHES. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED OF LATE...MOST OF
THIS INITIAL RAINFALL IS RUNNING OFF INTO THE AREAS STREAMS/DITCHES
AND THE REMAINDER IS BEING ABSORBED.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SAT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARTIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS...IN WHICH A FRONTAL LOW/TROF IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OFF THE TX COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WITH THIS FEATURE...COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5-6
INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SE TX/C AND S LA THRU SUN MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST HAS LESS CONFIDENCE WITH THE ENDING
OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW STALLING
THIS FRONTAL LOW OVER THE NW GULF THRU TUE...HAVE BUMPED UP THE
POPS MON INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY OVER SC LA WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO REMAIN.
DML
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
346 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO STREAM N ACROSS THE NW GULF
INTO SE TX/C AND S LA TODAY. BROADENING OUT TO THE BIGGER PICTURE
INCLUDES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS C TX NE THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCLUDES SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...INCLUDING
THE REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE MANUAL...COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PUT IT TOGETHER...AND
WE HAVE BEGUN THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT OVER THE REGION IN
OVER 4 MONTHS.
THUS FAR...LCH DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 2-4
INCHES ACROSS SE TX/W LA...WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING AMOUNTS OVER
5 INCHES ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND SW CALCASIEU INTO W CAMERON
PARISHES. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED OF LATE...MOST OF
THIS INITIAL RAINFALL IS RUNNING OFF INTO THE AREAS STREAMS/DITCHES
AND THE REMAINDER IS BEING ABSORBED.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SAT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARTIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS...IN WHICH A FRONTAL LOW/TROF IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OFF THE TX COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WITH THIS FEATURE...COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF
THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5-6
INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SE TX/C AND S LA THRU SUN MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST HAS LESS CONFIDENCE WITH THE ENDING
OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT. WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW STALLING
THIS FRONTAL LOW OVER THE NW GULF THRU TUE...HAVE BUMPED UP THE
POPS MON INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY OVER SC LA WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO REMAIN.
DML
&&
