Post by 99lsfm2 on Feb 20, 2014 19:09:07 GMT -6
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
702 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
WITH CAPE VALUES LOCALLY ENHANCED TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OVER
WAYNE... GREENE...WASHINGTON AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. ENOUGH WARMING
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED TO ERODE THE CAP WITHIN THIS REGION TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE CELLS...WITH ONE SUPERCELL THAT
MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF WAYNE COUNTY. REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WHILE
THE MAIN LINEAR COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE.
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE/HI-RES SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND WITH
SPREADING THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LA/
SOUTHWEST MS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES AFTER 9 PM
CST...BEFORE THIS CONVECTION EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE MAIN LINE
THAT WILL BE EJECTING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN CWFA FROM
CENTRAL MS. THERE WILL BE A LOW END THREAT OF DISCRETE SEVERE
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MERGES INTO THE LINEAR COMPLEX
LATER THIS EVENING. WITH SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE... AND
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE
MAIN COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A WIGGINS...LUCEDALE...JACKSON...
CAMDEN LINE...WHERE TORNADO WATCH #15 IS IN EFFECT. THE SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS INLAND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY.
/21
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
702 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
WITH CAPE VALUES LOCALLY ENHANCED TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OVER
WAYNE... GREENE...WASHINGTON AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES. ENOUGH WARMING
ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED TO ERODE THE CAP WITHIN THIS REGION TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE CELLS...WITH ONE SUPERCELL THAT
MANAGED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF WAYNE COUNTY. REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WHILE
THE MAIN LINEAR COMPLEX CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE.
THE LATEST SHORT RANGE/HI-RES SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TREND WITH
SPREADING THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LA/
SOUTHWEST MS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES AFTER 9 PM
CST...BEFORE THIS CONVECTION EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE MAIN LINE
THAT WILL BE EJECTING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR NORTHWESTERN CWFA FROM
CENTRAL MS. THERE WILL BE A LOW END THREAT OF DISCRETE SEVERE
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MERGES INTO THE LINEAR COMPLEX
LATER THIS EVENING. WITH SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO SHOW
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE... AND
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE
MAIN COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A WIGGINS...LUCEDALE...JACKSON...
CAMDEN LINE...WHERE TORNADO WATCH #15 IS IN EFFECT. THE SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS INLAND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY.
/21
&&
