April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat

Some loud thunder here in St James parish. ...With heavy rain

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND TUESDAY]...A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
STALLED ACROSS COVINGTON COUNTY AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NW
FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY. INSTABILITY VALUES TO NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 100 J/KG. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 400-600 J/KG.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH TRAINING OF CONVECTION RESULTING IN LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL ALSO LIKELY
SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. THE AREA AT
THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW
COULD MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH SOME THIS EVENING AS SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES. STILL...THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KT THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN THE 700-500 MB FLOW. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEAKER...GENERALLY IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. THEREFORE...THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A STORM CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
LOCALLY ENHANCED HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR AROUND
1-2 AM...PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 4-6 AM. THE AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ENDING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT PERSISTING OVERNIGHT EAST OF I-65. LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH...BUT ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BECOME
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH THE 0C 850 MB LINE FORECAST TO REACH CLOSE TO MOBILE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WEST OF I-65
WITH LOW TO MID 50S FURTHER EAST. HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT WITH 30-35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MORNING/TUESDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM...BY TUESDAY EVENING MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SPREADING SOUTHWARD WELL OFFSHORE. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLY UP TO 30 MPH CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
STILL A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT WITH CONTINUED VERTICAL MIXING NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THEN THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING GENERALLY FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS A LIGHT FREEZE CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND
SOME OF THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. DUE TO THE
UNSEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE GROWING SEASON A FREEZE
WATCH OR WARNING MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITORED THIS SITUATION CLOSELY AND POSSIBLY ISSUE THE WATCH
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SOME NEW MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN. WITH THE
BETTER MIXING ALSO COMES THE LESSER CHANCE FOR FROST FOR ALL AREAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
FROST TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE IN AREAS OF LOW TERRAIN OR PROTECTED
AREAS FROM THE WIND. BY THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT SETTLES
OVER MUCH THE MS...AL AND GA ON WEDNESDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A BETTER EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICT A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE MIDDLE
GULF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW
FORMING OVER THE GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN FOR MOST OF THE CWFA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ALSO SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
SUNDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY RESULTING IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE THIS SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
AFTER WED CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
32/EE

&&

VERY HEAVY rain in Ponchatoula with that band...and I mean heavy. There may be a FFW needed for this one if it doesn't budge.

Lutcher should be getting pretty strong winds right now.

It is the anniversary of the Titanic sinking.. its a sign.    


We're gonna need lifeboats instead.