April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat

NWS Jackson: Radar showing a good area of 50-55 kt winds in southern Yazoo near Phoenix.

EM Jackson: Numerous reports of trees and power lines down across Warren County. One vehicle has a tree with power lines on it, no injuries but driver is trapped (Jeff Davis Road). Water is now covering HWY 3 at the Yazoo County/Warren County line and is impassable.

Cell S of Houston near Iowa Colony

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CONTINUING TO CLOSELY EXAMINE THE MESOSCALE. THE MORNING RAIN AND
AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE CERTAINLY HAMPERED MOST OF THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE HAVE...HOWEVER...REBOUNDED A
BIT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE EVEN SOME SUNSHINE IS
BREAKING THROUGH. THIS IS MAINLY NEAR HWY 80 AND JUST NORTH AND
SOUTHWARD IN SUMTER...MARENGO...GREENE...HALE...AND DALLAS
COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS ALSO WHERE A SQUALL LINE IS
CURRENTLY INBOUND FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT...ALONG WITH
SEVERAL ENHANCED CELLS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LA GULF COAST. MY
GUESS IS THEY WILL BECOME CONSOLIDATED RIGHT BEFORE THEY GET TO THE
AL/MS STATE LINE. INTERESTINGLY...I WAS FULLY EXPECTING TO SEE THE
STORMS STAY HOOKED TO THE GULF COAST AS THEY MADE THEIR WAY EAST IN
THE CLASSIC GULF COAST CUTOFF SCENARIO...BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE
SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH.
SOME OF THE GULF COAST CUTOFF MAY STILL HAPPEN FURTHER EAST OVER
AL/FL WITHOUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT INLAND.

ALL THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATELY REBOUNDED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WHERE THE SUN HAS HELPED MIX THE LOWER BL.
MLCAPES WILL STILL STRUGGLE...BUT MAY MUSTER 500 JOULES OR SO JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE. BEING THAT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
SEEMINGLY WEAK BUT THE 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KTS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT STORMS MAY CERTAINLY STAY
ORGANIZED...AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH ANY
THERMAL BOUNDARIES THAT MAY BE LINGERING TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SQUALL LINE ALSO LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH
FORWARD SPEED TO NOT BE A MAJOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT SOME
ADDITIONAL MINOR AND NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST.