April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat

Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 12, 2014 18:56:16 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 18:56:16 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
442 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. STRATUS DECK WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. ANOTHER WARM/HUMID DAY
IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIFT EAST ACROSS
TEXAS SUNDAY AND SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOUISIANA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PWS
INCREASING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES. DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 100 KT JET STREAK AT 300 MB APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTN OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT LASTING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR THIS PERIOD WITH HELICITIES OF 300-500 M2/S2. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY
MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWS
OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
LESS IMPRESSIVE MONDAY AFTN/EVENING BUT INSTABILITY IS GREATER
WITH CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND LIS OF -5 TO -7. HAVE LIKELY POPS
BLANKETED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT
RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP QUICKLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A WINDY AND MUCH COOLER DAY EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL RUN
15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD RESULTING IN OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE GFS RESULTS IN A WET PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THE STRONG DISAGREEMENT.

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 12, 2014 21:00:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 12, 2014 21:00:10 GMT -6

Update from JACKSON:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...

THE PRIMARY UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE TO ADJUST THE HAZARD PRODUCTS
FOR MONDAY...PRIMARILY TO ADD A MENTION OF TORNADOES WITH EMPHASIS ON
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT REAL
CLEAR ON HOW THE FIRST CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BEHAVE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...BUT THIS WILL HAVE A LOT OF IMPLICATIONS ON WHERE BETTER
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO ADD A MENTION OF TORNADOES AS
LINGERING BOUNDARY FROM THE FIRST MCS COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE TORNADO
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE DAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NCEP
ARW/NMM AND 18Z GFS AS A PROXY FOR WHERE TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE ENHANCED. WHILE FORECASTED 0-1 SRH IS RELATIVELY WEAK...
ANY BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND WINDS NEAR A BOUNDARY WILL GREATLY
INCREASE VORTICITY POTENTIAL AND WITH EXPECTED NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS
AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES WOULD BE GREATER FOR MONDAY. /EC/

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 12, 2014 21:20:22 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 21:20:22 GMT -6 I'm just not seeing agreement on timing of this system, it will be interesting.
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 12, 2014 21:32:50 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 21:32:50 GMT -6 Looks like 7PM Monday is the sweet spot for the beginning of this mess and for a little lagniappe lol.. SIGTOR at 4PM Monday
	Last Edit: Apr 12, 2014 21:35:16 GMT -6 by Briella - Houma Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

imjab GCWX Supporter Posts: 127	April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 12, 2014 22:34:13 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by imjab on Apr 12, 2014 22:34:13 GMT -6 What is the feeling on spill over into Tuesday midday/afternoon?

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 12, 2014 22:35:06 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 22:35:06 GMT -6 Apr 12, 2014 22:34:13 GMT -6 imjab said: What is the feeling on spill over into Tuesday midday/afternoon? Cloudy and cold lol .. i'm talking in the 50s cold
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

imjab GCWX Supporter Posts: 127	April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 12, 2014 22:36:20 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by imjab on Apr 12, 2014 22:36:20 GMT -6 Wow. There goes the crawfish boil!

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 12, 2014 22:37:19 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 22:37:19 GMT -6 Apr 12, 2014 22:36:20 GMT -6 imjab said: Wow. There goes the crawfish boil! As scott said in the winter thread.. thats only if the clouds stick around.. big if
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 13, 2014 0:07:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 13, 2014 0:07:03 GMT -6

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...ARKLATEX AND LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY...

...NRN OK/SE KS/OZARKS/MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS ECNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...FIRST IN ERN KS AND THEN EXPANDING SSWWD
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NCNTRL OK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND OUACHITA MTNS OF ERN OK. MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF MCS FORMATION DURING THE EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR WICHITA KS SWD TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 21Z
SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT IS FORECAST WITH 850
TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AS SUPERCELLS ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SUBSTANTIAL THAT
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...A
POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER SHOULD
EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ANYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

FURTHER TO THE EAST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND OUACHITA MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD MO AND LITTLE ROCK AR SHOW SBCAPE
VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. ANY
STORM THAT CAN INITIATE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...COULD HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE AS MORE WIDESPREAD FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.

...SRN OK/NORTH TX/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BE IN
PLACE FROM NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE TX HILL
COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH THE CAP WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY ALONG THE DRYLINE BY
MIDDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TO INITIATE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERAL WIDELY SPACED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NORTH TX FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO
SMALL CLUSTERS...MOVING EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT ARDMORE OK AND DALLAS TX AT 00Z/MON SHOW
MLCAPE OF 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH
850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOOPED HODOGRAPHS WITH STRONGLY
VEERING WINDS WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB. THIS
WILL RESULT IN 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES NEAR 400 M2/S2. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR.

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 13, 2014 0:07:55 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 13, 2014 0:07:55 GMT -6

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR VIA THE EVOLUTION OF A
FULL LATITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OH RIVER
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX MONDAY MORNING TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS BY
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

...GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE AND
POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF AN ORGANIZED MCS...SHOULD BE ONGOING
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS/AL TO TN VALLEY. THIS
WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. MUCH OF
THE SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DEPEND UPON EARLY DAY MCS PROSPECTS/ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.

REGARDLESS...IN AREAS VOID OF EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOWS/OVERTURNING...THE FRONT-PRECEDING AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON VIA A 40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR/MOIST
INFLUX VIA THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS LIKELY THAT MIDDLE/SOME UPPER
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN
ANTICIPATED SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE...WHICH MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ACROSS MS/AL/TN. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN THE SPATIAL DETAILS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN
MESOSCALE/EARLY DAY UNCERTAINTIES...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN UPSWING
IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY QUASI-FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOW AND/OR WITH
REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY TEND TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND
RESIDUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF
QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS...SOME
HAIL...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS/AL AND
POTENTIALLY NEIGHBORING PARTS OF LA/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Deleted

Posts: 0

April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 13, 2014 6:47:36 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2014 6:47:36 GMT -6

30% risk for my area...development of a low over Arklamiss moving NE is why parts of Mississippi and Alabama have to be on guard for tornadoes. Dew points in excess of 70 degrees and CAPE of 2,000 J/KG will only enhance the severe threat.

People are very skittish this time of year in Alabama....

Last Edit: Apr 13, 2014 6:48:31 GMT -6 by Deleted

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 13, 2014 7:34:34 GMT -6

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 13, 2014 7:34:34 GMT -6

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE PEARL
RIVER AND THE PASCAGOULA RIVER. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING OVER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING WHEN THERE WILL ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THREAT OF TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEAT
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE
PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS...AND STREET
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 13, 2014 8:36:18 GMT -6 99lsfm2 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 13, 2014 8:36:18 GMT -6 AREA GRAPHICASTS:
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 13, 2014 13:44:05 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 13, 2014 13:44:05 GMT -6

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BlIDWLKCAAEobeC.png

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131934Z - 132200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS INTENSIFICATION OCCURS...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN AN ELEVATED MOIST
PLUME ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED IN
NATURE...ORIGINATING ABOVE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED
BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB. GIVEN THE INCREASING ASCENT OVERSPREADING
THE AREA...AND MOISTENING OF THE LOW-LEVELS...A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IS UNDERGOING
DESTABILIZATION AS INDICATED BY THE INCREASE IN SBCAPE/MUCAPE TO
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ALMOST 50 KTS AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IF ONGOING CONVECTION CAN TRANSITION TO A MORE
DISCRETE...SURFACE BASED MODE...OR...IF DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE LINE CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF...EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY
VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT.

IF A TRANSITION TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BECOMES APPARENT...A
WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat Apr 13, 2014 15:27:20 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 13, 2014 15:27:20 GMT -6 11pm - 7am
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

April 13th - 14th Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Threat

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 18:56:16 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 12, 2014 21:00:10 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 21:20:22 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 21:32:50 GMT -6

Post by imjab on Apr 12, 2014 22:34:13 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 22:35:06 GMT -6

Post by imjab on Apr 12, 2014 22:36:20 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 12, 2014 22:37:19 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 13, 2014 0:07:03 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 13, 2014 0:07:55 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2014 6:47:36 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 13, 2014 7:34:34 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 13, 2014 8:36:18 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 13, 2014 13:44:05 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 13, 2014 15:27:20 GMT -6

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