Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 10, 2014 9:12:13 GMT -6
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MS/EASTERN LA AND SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL
AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101510Z - 101615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL AL AND
PERHAPS PARTS OF EASTERN LA. PENDING DEVELOPMENT TRENDS...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS AL/ BY MIDDAY.
DISCUSSION...A MODESTLY-INTENSE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN LA AS OF
1445Z...WITH THE FASTEST EASTWARD PROGRESSION OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AT AROUND 30 KT. WHILE SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES THE SQUALL LINE...THE SQUALL-LINE PRECEDING AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO WARM COINCIDENT WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
/PREVALENT LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. WITH INHIBITION ALREADY
VIRTUALLY NIL...STORM INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE INTO LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF AN
OUTFLOW-INDUCED POINT OF INFLECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS INTO AL
WHILE SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
LINE.
THIS POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION WILL BE AS UPWARDS OF 2500-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE IS INCREASINGLY REALIZED /REFERENCE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM SLIDELL LA/. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL
SOMEWHAT LAG THE SQUALL LINE...QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION WILL BE
AIDED BY AN INCREASINGLY STRONG BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS /ESPECIALLY MS AND AL NORTHWARD/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BASE
OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
WINDS.
..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/10/2014
