POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread

SKYSUMMIT
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POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 3:07:31 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 3:07:31 GMT -6

 *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL932014  07/28/14  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    25    29    33    41    49    58    64    68    70    72    74
V (KT) LAND       20    22    25    29    33    41    49    58    64    68    70    72    74
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    22    24    26    30    35    42    50    59    66    69    70
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4     4     4     5     7    11     6     8     4     4    13    11    15
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     4     6     7     6     9     9     7     5     3     1    -1    -3    -1
SHEAR DIR        115    91    72    62    26    29    25    51   283   255   228   203   203
SST (C)         27.5  27.4  27.2  26.9  26.7  26.4  26.2  26.3  26.7  27.1  27.2  27.3  27.6
POT. INT. (KT)   131   130   127   124   122   119   118   118   123   127   128   129   133
ADJ. POT. INT.   132   131   128   124   122   120   118   118   123   126   126   127   130
200 MB T (C)   -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.4 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C)       4     4     5     5     5     5     6     6     8     8     9    10    11
700-500 MB RH     63    62    62    62    61    54    53    49    51    48    47    44    43
GFS VTEX (KT)      0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    -8     6    20    31    35    30    26    15    19    13     6    -3    -6
200 MB DIV        45    36    55    90    78    36    45   -21    -4     5    39    43    73
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0    -3   -14   -10   -11    -8   -10    -2    -5     1
LAND (KM)       1567  1691  1654  1614  1587  1553  1315  1129   978   902   849   631   526
LAT (DEG N)     10.3  10.5  10.6  10.8  10.9  11.3  11.7  12.2  12.7  13.3  13.8  14.4  15.2
LONG(DEG W)     31.2  32.5  33.7  35.0  36.3  39.1  42.1  45.2  48.2  51.1  53.8  56.5  59.2
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    12    13    13    14    15    15    15    14    13    14    13
HEAT CONTENT      17    14    13    11     7     2     3    12    11    19    27    27    28

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  572  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  76.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   5.  11.  17.  23.  27.  30.  32.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   3.   4.   6.   7.   9.  10.  12.  12.  12.  11.  10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   8.  12.  12.  10.   8.   6.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10. -11. -11. -11.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   9.  13.  21.  29.  38.  44.  48.  50.  52.  54.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014     INVEST 07/28/14  06 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.9 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  19.3 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  69.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 107.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  12.4 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  60.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  67.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    29% is   2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    13% is   1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     6% is   1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014     INVEST 07/28/2014  06 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

Last Edit: Aug 6, 2014 9:51:03 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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Deleted

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POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 5:42:25 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2014 5:42:25 GMT -6

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next
several days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 6:02:41 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jul 28, 2014 6:02:41 GMT -6 Much better humidity environment for 93L in the 700mb-500mb column compared to what TD 2 had to deal with, per the SHIPS forecast, at least over the next 72 hrs or so.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 7:03:49 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jul 28, 2014 7:03:49 GMT -6 12z Best track position: AL, 93, 2014072812, , BEST, 0, 100N, 325W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 7:40:45 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 7:40:45 GMT -6 Nice convective pulses this morning. --> Infared GIF Loop
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ndg
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POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 7:44:30 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT likes this

Post by ndg on Jul 28, 2014 7:44:30 GMT -6

Very good chance of 93L becoming TS Bertha, per the latest 12z intensity models forecast.
Amazing how quickly conditions change, not even a week ago many of us thought that there was no way for tropical development for at least 2 weeks.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 7:46:36 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 7:46:36 GMT -6 ...and 4 public intensity models have her a hurricane in 5 days
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 8:09:32 GMT -6 99lsfm2 likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 8:09:32 GMT -6
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,377	POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 8:33:10 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Jul 28, 2014 8:33:10 GMT -6 Here fishy fishy!
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

SCOT PILIE'
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POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 8:56:15 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Jul 28, 2014 8:56:15 GMT -6

The long-range fate of 93L remains highly uncertain, and will depend upon exactly how far south the center ends up consolidating when the storm develops. Most of the 20 members of the 06Z Monday run of the GFS ensemble model (which runs the GFS model at low resolution 20 times with slightly different initial conditions to show a range of possible outcomes) showed the disturbance missing the U.S. East Coast and recurving out to sea next week; four of the members showed 93L hitting the Southeast U.S. coast. Most of the members of the 00Z Monday run of the European ensemble model showed 93L moving into the Eastern Caribbean on a more southerly trajectory without recurving.

Dr. Jeff Masters - Weather Underground

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hurricaner Moderator Board Member Posts: 5,167 Staff Member	POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 9:10:32 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by hurricaner on Jul 28, 2014 9:10:32 GMT -6 I generally put more faith in the 00Z & 12Z runs. They tend to be more realible model runs. Also until we actually have defined system all the models are generally crap shots.
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SKYSUMMIT
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POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 9:41:33 GMT -6 99lsfm2 likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 9:41:33 GMT -6

The 12z GFS is rolling out and has a surface low closed off by late tonight into tomorrow morning so we may very well have a TD to track in 12 - 18 hours or so depending on what she does, and what the NHC does.

Last Edit: Jul 28, 2014 9:41:59 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

hurricaner
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POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 9:45:19 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT likes this

Post by hurricaner on Jul 28, 2014 9:45:19 GMT -6

They are planning a recon flight for Thursday.

0945 AM EDT MON 28 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 13N 52W AT 31/1730Z.

GCWX Board Member

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 10:01:07 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 10:01:07 GMT -6 12z GFS @ 96 hours out, getting close to hurricane strength:
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread Jul 28, 2014 10:11:53 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 10:11:53 GMT -6 5 days out...
	Last Edit: Jul 28, 2014 10:12:27 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

POST TROPICAL STORM Bertha Discussion Thread

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 3:07:31 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2014 5:42:25 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 28, 2014 6:02:41 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 28, 2014 7:03:49 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 7:40:45 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 28, 2014 7:44:30 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 7:46:36 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 8:09:32 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Jul 28, 2014 8:33:10 GMT -6

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Jul 28, 2014 8:56:15 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jul 28, 2014 9:10:32 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 9:41:33 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jul 28, 2014 9:45:19 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 10:01:07 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 28, 2014 10:11:53 GMT -6

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